Editorial International International Policy News Politics Uncategorized

ANALYSIS: Three Scenarios for a Post-Trump World

Jacques Pj Provost

2026-06-20 15:17:31

A Bipolar World Revisited

The first scenario is a return to bipolarity, but with different players. Instead of the East-West confrontation of the 1950s through the 1980s, we would see a North-South duel, pitting the United States and its allies against a Sino-Russian coalition. This scenario is based on an inescapable reality: China and Russia have every reason to ally themselves. Beijing needs Moscow to secure its energy supplies, while Moscow relies on Beijing to circumvent Western sanctions. Together, they already form the core of a new anti-Western axis.

Signs of this alliance are multiplying. In 2025, China and Russia signed a “no-limits” friendship treaty, including a mutual defense clause in the event of aggression. Their militaries have conducted joint exercises in the South China Sea and the Arctic, two strategic areas where Washington is trying to maintain its influence. Their goal? To create a sphere of influence stretching from Eastern Europe to Southeast Asia. And they are achieving this, methodically, by exploiting the West’s weaknesses.

Europe, a Hostage to Its Own Decline

Europe, once a pillar of the liberal order, is now a marginal player. Divided between a weakened Germany, a France in political crisis, and an Italy plagued by social tensions, it no longer has the means to achieve its ambitions. In 2024, the European Union failed to adopt a common budget, paralyzed by divisions between northern and southern countries. Worse still, some member states, such as Hungary and Slovakia, are openly turning to Moscow or Beijing, seeking protection within their spheres of influence that Brussels can no longer offer them.

The result? A Europe adrift, incapable of playing a stabilizing role. In 2026, NATO officially ceased to exist as a military alliance, replaced by a “Coalition of Volunteers” in which each country contributes according to its means. America, for its part, is focused on its “America First 2.0”: a policy of brute force, where alliances are negotiated on a case-by-case basis, and where deterrence relies less on diplomacy than on the threat of economic sanctions or cyberattacks.

This scenario is terrifying because it is already unfolding. Cold War 2.0 is not fiction: it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Every American withdrawal, every European weakness, every Sino-Russian advance brings the world a little closer to this future. And the most worrying part? No one seems prepared to prevent it. Not in Washington, where isolationism prevails; not in Brussels, where inaction reigns; nor even in Beijing or Moscow, where leaders are banking on the West’s division to impose their hegemony.

Section 3: The Scenario of Regional Empires — A World Without a Superpower

The End of American Hegemony

The second scenario is that of a world where no single power truly dominates. The United States, weakened by internal divisions and its withdrawal from the international arena, is no longer able to impose its will. China, despite its rise to power, is too dependent on its resource supplies to play the role of global policeman. In this world, regional powers call the shots. India controls the Indian Ocean, Turkey dominates the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia imposes its vision of political Islam in Africa and Central Asia. As for Europe, it fragments into microstates, each seeking protectors among these new empires.

This scenario is based on dynamics already at work. Since 2020, countries in the Global South have increasingly refused to submit to the rules imposed by Washington or Brussels. In 2025, India refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, preferring instead to act as a mediator. Turkey, for its part, used its veto in NATO to block Finland and Sweden’s accession, while strengthening its ties with Moscow. These middle powers no longer need the West to prosper: they have their own markets, their own allies, and their own ambitions.

The New Rules of the Game

In this world, alliances are temporary, borders are fluid, and conflicts are constant. Trade wars, cyberattacks, and election interference have replaced traditional armed conflicts. The United States, once the arbiter of the international system, is becoming just one player among many—and at times even a disruptor. In 2026, Washington imposed 50% tariffs on European exports, triggering a major economic crisis. Europe, unable to respond as a united front, was forced to negotiate individually with the United States, humiliating its leaders.

As for China, it is relying on its soft power to expand its influence. In Africa, Beijing has replaced the former colonial powers, offering loans and infrastructure in exchange for natural resources. In Southeast Asia, it is using its economic power to pressure countries to join its “Belt and Road” initiative. But this strategy comes at a cost: a growing dependence on Beijing, which could backfire in the long run. For in this world of regional empires, loyalty is never guaranteed.

This scenario depicts a world where power is no longer measured in bombs or dollars, but in influence. Where the United States is no longer the world’s policeman, but just one player among many—sometimes even a liability. Where Europe, divided and weakened, must choose between submitting to Washington, allying with Beijing, or disappearing. This scenario is both exciting and terrifying: it offers unprecedented freedom to middle powers, but it also opens the door to permanent chaos. For without a superpower to impose a minimum of order, the world becomes a jungle.

Section 4: The Chaos Scenario — The Collapse of the International Order

A World Without Rules

The third scenario is the bleakest: that of a total collapse of the international order. In this world, no state trusts anyone else. Alliances are broken, treaties ignored, and the law of the jungle reigns supreme. This scenario is based on a simple assumption: if the United States continues on its isolationist path, no one will be able to guarantee stability anymore. Not Europe, which is too divided to play a role; not China, which is too busy managing its own internal crises; and not even Russia, whose economy is in shambles.

The warning signs are already there. In 2025, Iran attacked Israel with ballistic missiles, triggering an Israeli counterattack that nearly sparked a regional war. North Korea, for its part, stepped up its provocations, testing intercontinental-range missiles. As for the United States, it responded to these crises by withdrawing even further from the international stage. In 2026, Washington announced that it would no longer participate in UN peacekeeping operations, leaving the field open for actors such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia to impose their own vision.

The Consequences of a Lawless World

In this scenario, the world becomes a wasteland. Conflicts multiply, not only between states but also within them. Ethnic minorities, religious groups, and separatist movements take advantage of the chaos to impose their own rule. Migration becomes unmanageable, humanitarian crises multiply, and pandemics spread unchecked. In 2027, a mutant strain of avian flu killed 50 million people due to a lack of international coordination to contain the epidemic.

Economies are collapsing, currencies are crashing, and populations are turning to extreme solutions. Authoritarian regimes, such as Russia and China, are taking advantage of this instability to expand their influence. But even they are not immune: in 2028, a popular uprising overthrew the Chinese regime in Xinjiang province, plunging the country into civil war. The post-Trump world is not just a dangerous world—it is an ungovernable one.

This scenario spells the end of everything. Not just the end of the American order, but the end of order itself. A world where the law of the jungle replaces international law, where alliances are illusions, and where survival becomes the sole imperative. This scenario is terrifying because it offers no way out. Neither victory nor defeat—just a slow and inexorable collapse. And the most terrifying part? It’s the one unfolding before our very eyes—if we fail to act.

Section 5: Europe's Role — Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Europe, Caught Between Two Fires

In this changing world, Europe occupies a unique position: that of a continent that is both too weak to impose its will and too rich to be ignored. Divided between a Germany in decline, a France in political crisis, and an Italy plagued by social tensions, it no longer has the means to play a stabilizing role. Yet it is Europe that could save the international order—provided it overcomes its divisions and finds a common voice.

The challenges are immense. Europe must first rearm itself. In 2026, European military spending accounted for barely 1.2% of GDP, compared to 3.5% for Russia and 1.7% for China. Without a credible European military, Europe will be nothing more than a pawn in the game of the great powers. Next, it must rebuild its alliances. In 2025, the European Union attempted to create an “Alliance of Democracies,” but the project failed due to a lack of U.S. support. Today, Europe must turn to other partners: India, Japan, or even South Africa.

The Temptation of Neutrality

But Europe also has another option: neutrality. Some countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, are already turning to Moscow or Beijing, seeking within their spheres of influence the protection that Brussels can no longer offer them. This strategy is dangerous, as it further weakens Europe and makes it vulnerable to external pressures. In 2026, Hungary became the first European country to sign a military cooperation agreement with China, in exchange for Chinese investments in its infrastructure.

Yet this temptation toward neutrality is understandable. In a world where the United States is withdrawing and China and Russia are rising in power, Europe no longer has a protector. It must therefore choose: either it submits to one of these two blocs, or it disappears as an international actor. The third path—that of a united and independent Europe—seems the least likely today. But it is also the only one that offers a chance for long-term survival.

Europe stands at a crossroads. It can choose to submit to Washington, Beijing, or Moscow. It can also choose to disappear, absorbed by one of these blocs or marginalized by their confrontation. But it can also, against all odds, rise from the ashes. Provided it overcomes its divisions, rearms itself, and finds a common voice. It is not impossible. But it is far from a foregone conclusion.

Section 6: China's Role—Between Ambition and Vulnerability

China: A New Superpower?

If the United States withdraws from the international stage, China stands to be the big winner. With an economy that now accounts for 20% of global GDP, a modern military, and an aggressive diplomatic strategy, Beijing is on track to become the world’s leading power. But this rise to power is not without risks. China is dependent on its supply of resources, vulnerable to cyberattacks, and threatened by internal crises, such as the unrest in Xinjiang or tensions with Taiwan.

Nevertheless, Beijing is relying on its soft power to expand its influence. In Africa, it has replaced the former colonial powers, offering loans and infrastructure in exchange for natural resources. In Southeast Asia, it is using its economic power to pressure countries to join its “Belt and Road” initiative. But this strategy comes at a cost: a growing dependence on Beijing, which could backfire in the long run. For in a world where alliances are temporary, loyalty is never guaranteed.

The Limits of Chinese Power

China also has structural weaknesses. Its economy, though powerful, is unbalanced: it relies too heavily on exports and not enough on domestic consumption. Its demographics are in decline, with an aging population and one of the world’s lowest birth rates. Above all, China remains an authoritarian regime, incapable of adapting to political or social changes. In 2026, massive protests broke out in several major cities, demanding greater freedoms and a more equitable distribution of wealth.

Finally, China must contend with resistance from other powers. The United States, despite its partial withdrawal, remains a major force, capable of disrupting China’s plans through cyberattacks or economic sanctions. Japan and India, for their part, are strengthening their alliances to counter Beijing’s influence in Asia. In this context, China cannot impose its hegemony without risking a major conflict. And in a world where nuclear weapons remain a threat, that risk is unacceptable.

China is on its way to becoming the world’s leading power. But this rise is not linear. It is fraught with pitfalls, internal crises, and external resistance. Beijing is relying on its soft power to expand its influence, but this strategy comes at a cost: a growing dependence on its partners and increased vulnerability to economic or political shocks. China may dominate the 21st century. But it may also collapse, a victim of its own contradictions.

Section 7: Russia's Role—Between Decline and Resilience

Russia, a Giant with Feet of Clay

Russia is a key player in this post-Trump world. With a declining economy, an aging population, and a powerful but costly military, Moscow is a giant with feet of clay. Yet Russia remains a nuclear power, capable of disrupting the international order through cyberattacks, election interference, or armed conflicts. And in a world where the United States is withdrawing and Europe is weakened, Moscow can play a major role.

Russia’s strategy rests on two pillars: exploiting Western divisions and creating a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. In 2025, Russia annexed Belarus, turning Minsk into a satellite state. It also strengthened its ties with Hungary, Slovakia, and Serbia, offering these countries an alternative to Brussels’ influence. But this strategy comes at a cost: increased dependence on Beijing, which could backfire on Moscow in the long run.

The Limits of Russian Power

Russia also has structural weaknesses. Its economy is overly dependent on energy exports, making it vulnerable to shocks in oil and gas prices. Its population is in decline, with an aging population and one of the world’s lowest birth rates. Above all, Russia remains an authoritarian regime, incapable of adapting to political or social changes. In 2026, massive protests erupted in several major cities, demanding greater freedoms and a more equitable distribution of wealth.

Finally, Russia must contend with resistance from the West. The United States, despite its partial withdrawal, remains a major power, capable of disrupting Russian plans through cyberattacks or economic sanctions. Europe, for its part, is attempting to rearm to counter Moscow’s influence. In this context, Russia cannot impose its hegemony without risking a major conflict. And in a world where nuclear weapons remain a threat, that risk is unacceptable.

Russia is a key player in this post-Trump world. But it is also a giant with feet of clay, whose power rests on fragile foundations. Moscow is banking on exploiting Western divisions and creating a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. But this strategy comes at a cost: increased dependence on Beijing, an unbalanced economy, and a discontented population. Russia can destabilize Europe. But it can also collapse, a victim of its own contradictions.

Section 8: Economic Challenges — The World in Crisis

The Collapse of Multilateralism

One of the most striking features of the post-Trump world is the collapse of multilateralism. International institutions, such as the UN, the WTO, and the IMF, have become empty shells, unable to fulfill their roles. In 2026, the WTO was officially dissolved, replaced by bilateral agreements in which each country negotiates according to its own interests. As for the IMF, it has become a tool of Chinese power, which uses its loans to expand its influence in Africa and Asia.

This decline of multilateralism has dramatic consequences. Economic crises are multiplying, inequalities are worsening, and populations are turning to extreme solutions. In 2027, a major financial crisis erupted in Europe, triggered by the collapse of the single currency. Member states were forced to negotiate individually with creditors, plunging the continent into chaos. In this world, the law of the jungle has replaced international law.

The New Rules of Global Trade

Against this backdrop, global trade has become a battlefield. The United States, once a champion of free trade, now imposes prohibitive tariffs on its trading partners. China, for its part, uses its economic power to force countries to join its “Belt and Road” initiative. And Europe, divided and weakened, can no longer play a stabilizing role. In 2026, the European Union attempted to create an “Alliance of Democracies,” but the project failed due to a lack of U.S. support.

The consequences are dramatic. Supply chains are fragmenting, commodity prices are skyrocketing, and people are suffering from shortages. In 2027, a major food crisis erupted in Africa, triggered by the collapse of Ukrainian and Russian exports. In this world, prosperity is no longer the norm—it is the exception.

The post-Trump world is one where multilateralism is dead, where international institutions are empty shells, and where the law of the jungle has replaced the rule of law. In this context, economic crises are multiplying, inequalities are worsening, and people are suffering. It is a world where prosperity is no longer the norm, but the exception. And the most terrifying part? No one seems capable of stopping it.

Section 9: Security Challenges — A More Dangerous World

Weapons Proliferation

In a world where the United States is withdrawing and traditional alliances are crumbling, the proliferation of weapons has become a major issue. States, growing increasingly distrustful, are seeking to acquire deterrent weapons, whether nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, or cyberweapons. In 2026, Saudi Arabia officially joined the club of nuclear powers after developing an atomic bomb with Pakistan’s help. As for Iran, it accelerated its nuclear program despite international sanctions.

This proliferation has dramatic consequences. Conflicts become more dangerous, crises more difficult to manage, and populations more vulnerable. In 2027, a major cyberattack paralyzed the banking systems of several European countries, sparking riots and looting. In this world, security is no longer guaranteed by alliances or institutions, but by fear.

New Forms of Warfare

Traditional armed conflicts are no longer the only threat. Trade wars, cyberattacks, electoral interference, and disinformation campaigns are becoming weapons in their own right. The United States, China, and Russia are engaged in a constant shadow war, using every means at their disposal to weaken their adversaries. In 2026, a massive disinformation campaign was launched against Germany, accusing Berlin of seeking to dominate Europe. The result? A major political crisis that paralyzed the German government for months.

As for the general public, they are becoming targets. Migration, humanitarian crises, and pandemics are on the rise, creating fertile ground for extremism and violence. In 2027, a mutant strain of avian flu killed 50 million people due to a lack of international coordination to contain the epidemic. In this world, security is no longer a priority—it is a luxury.

The post-Trump world is more dangerous than ever. Weapons are proliferating, conflicts are multiplying, and populations are becoming targets. Wars are no longer won on the battlefield, but in the shadows—through cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, or economic crises. It is a world where security is no longer guaranteed by alliances or institutions, but by fear. And the most terrifying part? No one seems capable of stopping it.

Section 10: Environmental Challenges — A World That's Overheating

Climate Collapse

In this world in crisis, climate change has become a secondary concern. Governments, preoccupied with conflicts and economic crises, are no longer able to coordinate their efforts to combat global warming. In 2026, CO2 emissions reached a record high, despite warnings from scientists. As for international agreements, such as the Paris Agreement, they have become empty shells, ignored by most governments.

The consequences are dramatic. Natural disasters are on the rise: hurricanes, droughts, and floods. Populations are forced to migrate, creating major humanitarian crises. In 2027, millions of people were displaced by rising sea levels in Southeast Asia. In this world, the environment is no longer a priority—it is collateral damage.

The Race for Resources

At the same time, the race for resources is intensifying. Nations, growing increasingly wary, are seeking to secure their supplies of energy, minerals, and arable land. China, for example, has launched a massive campaign to gain control of cobalt mines in Africa, which are essential for its high-tech industries. As for Russia, it uses its gas as a weapon, cutting off supplies to Europe whenever Moscow feels its interests are threatened.

This race for resources has dramatic consequences. Conflicts are multiplying, prices are skyrocketing, and populations are suffering from shortages. In 2027, a major food crisis erupted in Africa, triggered by the collapse of Ukrainian and Russian exports. In this world, survival becomes the sole imperative.

The post-Trump world is one where climate change is no longer a priority, but a collateral casualty. Nations, consumed by conflicts and economic crises, are no longer able to coordinate their efforts. Natural disasters are on the rise, migration is skyrocketing, and people are suffering. It is a world where survival becomes the only imperative. And the most terrifying part? No one seems capable of stopping it.

Conclusion: What Kind of World Awaits Us Tomorrow?

A Time for Decisions

We are living through a pivotal moment in history. The choices made by the United States, Europe, China, and Russia in the coming years will shape the world of tomorrow. Three scenarios are taking shape: a return to Cold War 2.0, a world of regional empires, or a total collapse of the international order. Each of these scenarios is plausible, and each carries within it the seeds of either disaster or rebirth.

But one thing is certain: the post-Trump world will no longer resemble the one we have known. It will be more dangerous, more fragmented, and more unpredictable. Stability will no longer be the norm, but the exception. And those who survive will not necessarily be the most powerful, but the most adaptable.

Europe: The Last Bastion of the World Order?

In this context, Europe has a crucial role to play. Divided and weakened as it is, it must nevertheless find a common voice to avoid disappearing as an international actor. It must rearm itself, rebuild its alliances, and rediscover a strategic ambition. Otherwise, it will be condemned to suffer the consequences of others’ choices, or to disappear as a united entity.

As for the United States, it must choose: either it continues on its isolationist path, or it regains a stabilizing role in the world. American withdrawal is not a solution: it will only accelerate the collapse of the international order. And in a world where conflicts are multiplying and crises are worsening, this scenario is unacceptable.

The post-Trump world is upon us. Three scenarios are taking shape: a return to Cold War 2.0, a world of regional empires, or a total collapse of the international order. Each of these futures is plausible. Each is terrifying. And none is inevitable. For history is not predetermined. It is shaped every day by our choices, our mistakes, and our hopes. So, what kind of world do we want? One of division, chaos, and fear? Or one of cooperation, stability, and prosperity? The answer depends on us.

Signed, Jacques Pj Provost, columnist