ANALYSIS: Trump Reopens the Door to Tehran as the Strait of Hormuz Closes in on the World

Nothing happens by chance in Gulf diplomacy. Every statement is a move on a chessboard where the pawns are worth barrels of oil.

Iran’s Domestic Election Season

The Iranian regime is more fragile than at any time since 1979. The economy is collapsing. The currency has devalued by more than 50% in two years. Women’s protests are resuming in major cities. Closing the Strait of Hormuz is a way to rally the people around the flag. It’s the old playbook of regimes on the brink: when there’s no bread, stir up the external enemy.

The Trump Window

And yet, Trump speaks out. And yet, Trump extends a hand. Why? Because Trump knows something that career diplomats refuse to admit: time is working against everyone. With every passing week, the region moves closer to an uncontrollable explosion. And an uncontrollable explosion ruins a presidency.

The markets didn’t wait for official statements to take a position. They know. They always know beforehand.

Soaring Marine Insurance Premiums

Insurance premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have increased fivefold since June. Some Greek and Norwegian shipowners are now refusing contracts in the area. Russian and Iranian “ghost ships” are stepping in, flying flags of convenience and conducting nighttime transshipments. Global trade is quietly restructuring itself, behind the scenes, before the first bomb drops.

The price that won’t budge—and shouldn’t

Have you checked the price per barrel this week? It’s unusually stable. That’s the signal. A market that should be panicking but isn’t—that’s a market being propped up. By whom? By the Saudis, who are pumping at full capacity. By U.S. strategic reserves, which are being depleted. By the Chinese, who are stockpiling like never before. Someone knows something. And that someone isn’t you.

In this three-player chess game—Washington, Tehran, Beijing—Europe is the odd one out.

75% of Europe’s oil passes within 200 km of the Iranian coast

You read that right. 75%. And Europe has no credible naval force capable of securing this corridor on its own. The EMASoH mission—the European maritime surveillance operation in the Strait—has fewer than ten ships for an area the size of the western Mediterranean. It’s laughable. It’s humiliating. It’s the truth that no French minister will dare to say tonight on the 8 p.m. news.

What Berlin and Paris Are Not Saying

There is a clause in the transatlantic defense agreements stipulating that the United States may require its allies to provide military support in the event of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This clause has never been invoked. It could be. And if it is, French, German, and Italian ships will be sent into a war zone—in most cases, without any prior parliamentary debate. You’ll find out about the decision on the day you embark.

They’re selling you a black-and-white narrative. Good versus evil. Democracy versus theocracy. That’s not true. It’s worse than untrue—it’s dangerous.

Tehran isn’t crazy. Tehran is rational

The Iranian regime is cruel. It hangs young women for wearing a veil that’s not properly adjusted. It funds militias that massacre civilians in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen. All of this is true. And yet, Tehran is playing a rational game. Every provocation is carefully calculated. So is every retreat. Confusing cruelty with irrationality is the surest way to misjudge the next move.

Washington is not monolithic

Trump wants to negotiate. But within his cabinet, the hawks are champing at the bit. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and certain military advisers see a weakened Iran as a historic opportunity to put an end to it all. Netanyahu is pushing in the same direction from Jerusalem. Trump is playing against his own camp. And no one knows how long he’ll be able to hold out.

Everyone is talking about “negotiations.” No one is saying what really needs to be put on the table.

The Three Insurmountable Obstacles

A credible agreement would have to address three issues simultaneously: the nuclear program (enrichment, inspections, stockpiles), regional militias (Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi Shiites), and the Israeli question (recognition, non-aggression, trade). Never in the region’s diplomatic history have these three issues been addressed together. Never. The 2015 JCPOA had resolved only the first—and it collapsed.

China, the silent arbiter

Beijing buys 90% of Iran’s exported oil. Beijing brokered the Saudi Arabia–Iran rapprochement in 2023. Beijing is now the indispensable partner for any de-escalation. And Beijing will not give Washington any breaks. Any negotiations between Trump and Tehran will take place within a three-way framework involving Xi Jinping—even if he isn’t in the room. That is the multipolar world. It is not a theory. It is a diplomatic fact.

Behind the scenes, three developments are worth a closer look. None of them made the headlines. All of them are decisive.

The Visits to Oman

For the past three weeks, discreet back-and-forth travel between Muscat, Tehran, and Washington has been on the rise. Oman has always been the discreet facilitator of major U.S.-Iranian negotiations—including the JCPOA. If Omani diplomats are on the move, it means something is happening.

Russia Lying in Wait

Moscow has every interest in a prolonged crisis in the Gulf. It drives up oil prices. It diverts attention from Ukraine. It weakens the United States. Putin will therefore play the diplomatic sabotage card, all while pretending to support peace. Pay close attention to Russian statements in the coming days. The more “balanced” they are, the more destructive they will be.

Let’s stop with the geopolitical abstractions. Let’s get down to reality—your reality.

Your gas bill in 90 days

If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persist—even without a total closure—the price per liter at the pump could rise by 15 to 30 cents by the end of the quarter. If the Strait of Hormuz closes, even for just 72 hours, prices in France will exceed 2 euros per liter. Your transportation budget, your heating budget, your food budget—everything is tied to oil. Everything.

Your savings, your investments, your retirement

Global pension funds have invested heavily in fossil fuels over the past two years. A crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could cause these assets to surge by 40% in a week—or cause them to collapse if an agreement is reached too quickly. Your retirement literally depends on a stretch of water you’ll never cross.

We’ve been through this before. Three times in the 20th century. We haven’t learned anything.

1914 — Sarajevo was just a pretext

No one wanted the Great War. Everyone fought it. Because each player believed the other was bluffing. Because each player believed that retreating would be seen as a sign of weakness. Hormuz in 2026 bears a striking resemblance to the cross-alliances of 1914: a technical incident, a sunken tanker, a damaged American frigate—and the chain of events spirals out of control.

1956 — The Suez Crisis and the End of Europe

When Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal, France and the United Kingdom believed they could intervene. Washington stopped them by cutting off financial support. On that day, Europe ceased to be a power. If the Strait of Hormuz explodes and Europe remains a bystander, history will record a second Suez. This time, it will be final.

You’re reading an article about Ormuz. Take a look at how many you’ve read this week. One? Two? Zero? That’s the problem.

News that doesn’t go viral

A distant strait, abstract numbers, unpronounceable names. That doesn’t get clicks. It doesn’t get any likes. Algorithms bury the Strait of Hormuz under political scandals and sensational news stories. The result: a war can break out without 90% of Western citizens ever hearing about it. That’s exactly what happened in Yemen. And that’s exactly what could happen again.

What we—independent journalists—can do

Reject the fog. Keep explaining. Make the distant feel tangible. Because an informed citizen is a citizen who can make a difference. Not much. Not alone. But together, by the millions, yes. It’s the only weapon we have. And we’re going to use it.

I don’t have a crystal ball. I have my research, cross-checks, and thirty years of observing international affairs. Here’s what that tells me.

The optimistic scenario

Trump and Tehran reach a minimal but genuine agreement within 60 to 90 days. A freeze on Iranian uranium enrichment in exchange for a partial lifting of sanctions. The Strait of Hormuz reopens fully. Prices stabilize. Europe avoids a crisis. Probability: 30%. That’s not much. But it’s not nothing.

The worst-case scenario

An incident at sea—whether deliberate or accidental—triggers an escalation. The United States strikes Iranian sites. Tehran retaliates against U.S. bases in the Gulf. Israel enters into open war. The Houthis close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Two major maritime routes are cut off simultaneously. The price per barrel exceeds $200. Global recession. Probability: 25%. Too high to sleep soundly.

Trump said “possible.” Tehran said “out of the question.” Between those two words lies a world to be saved—or lost.

I’m not asking you to panic. I’m asking you to look. To read. To understand that what’s at stake in a strait 6,000 kilometers from Paris will play out tomorrow in your wallet, the day after tomorrow in your streets, and perhaps one day in the barracks where your child will be called to serve. Reality won’t ask for your opinion when it strikes.

But right now, you still have a choice. The choice to know. The choice to demand that your elected officials speak out. The choice to refuse to be kept in the dark. It’s not much. It’s all we have left. So let’s do it.

Signed, Jacques PJ Provost