ANALYSIS: Trump Suspends "Project Freedom" in the Strait of Hormuz — an agreement that only he still believes in

Riyadh Is No Longer Answering the Phone

Mohammed bin Salman has not publicly commented on the decision. This silence speaks louder than a thousand speeches. Saudi Arabia has lost three oil tankers this year. It was partially funding the U.S. deployment. It learned of the suspension via a press release, just like any ordinary journalist.

In Tel Aviv, Benjamin Netanyahu called it an “incomprehensible decision.” In Abu Dhabi, officials described it as “a worrying signal.” In Manama, where the U.S. Fifth Fleet is based, the silence has turned icy. Allies are wondering who will be the next to be abandoned.

Europe Discovers It No Longer Has a Safety Net

Seven European container ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Europe has no naval force capable of securing this passage on its own. For decades, it has outsourced its energy security to Washington. This morning, the bill arrived.

And yet, in Brussels, they continue to talk about “strategic reflection.” Meanwhile, the price of a barrel of Brent crude rose by 4.7% over two trading sessions. German households will pay. French households will pay. No one will tell them exactly why.

I’m thinking about my heating bill. You’re thinking about yours. And we both understand, without being told, that what’s happening 7,000 kilometers from here will affect our lives in January. That’s what globalization is all about: paying for decisions we never approved.

The Revolutionary Guards Have Not Dismantled Anything

General Hossein Salami, commander of the Revolutionary Guards, declared on November 12: “The Strait of Hormuz belongs to us whenever we decide it does.” This was six days before Trump’s announcement. No denial. No retraction. No verifiable gesture of de-escalation.

The drone factories in Karaj are running. The missile bases in Bandar Abbas are operational. The nuclear program is still enriching uranium to 60%—well beyond any civilian use. Nothing has changed. Nothing.

What Intelligence Knows but Isn’t Saying

A DIA memo dated November 14—leaked to The Washington Post—mentions “no indication of a change in Iranian doctrine.” The document is classified. Did Trump read it? The question is not rhetorical.

And yet, a functional military operation is being suspended. Proven assets are being withdrawn. Trust is being placed in a regime that has never honored a single agreement since 1979.

There comes a moment in every lopsided negotiation when one side believes it is negotiating, while the other knows it is taking advantage. Trump believes he is negotiating. Tehran knows it is taking advantage. This is not an opinion. It is a reading of the facts.

The Seafarers Left Behind in Silence

Their names are Reza, Mahmoud, Joseph, Aravind. They are Filipino, Indian, Pakistani, Sudanese. They earn between $600 and $1,400 a month to cross a corridor where drones explode. They didn’t vote for Trump. They didn’t vote for Khamenei. Yet they still pay the price.

Aravind Krishnan, 34, a mechanic on the Marlin Luanda, was struck in January 2024. He suffered third-degree burns over 40% of his body. His wife was waiting for him in Cochin with their six-year-old daughter. He returned home six months later. He can no longer walk properly. He continues to go to sea because he has no choice. And yet we talk about agreements without ever talking about them.

The strait as a mirror of our indifference

We’ve all looked the other way. We’ve all accepted that gas stays cheap thanks to men we never name. We’ve all entrusted our comfort to anonymous sailors who traverse a maritime firing range. Doesn’t this suspension of “Project Freedom” concern us? It concerns us every time we fill up.

Reza Pahlavi will call his mother tonight. Aravind Krishnan will sleep poorly. And Trump will tweet about his historic agreement. Three realities. The same era.

I’m writing this article, and I know that most readers will never know these names. That’s normal. That’s how empires are built: by erasing the faces of those who carry them. But tonight, I can no longer erase them. Not after reading the reports. Not after seeing the photos. Not after.

Taiwan is watching the Strait of Hormuz and drawing its own conclusions

In Taipei, the Ministry of Defense held an emergency meeting on November 19. Officially, it was a “routine meeting.” Unofficially, a senior official told the Financial Times: “If Washington bends to Tehran, what will it do when faced with Beijing?”

The question isn’t paranoid. It’s a matter of simple math. An administration that suspends a viable military operation for the sake of a hypothetical deal sends a signal to every authoritarian capital on the planet. The signal has been heard. It’s even being applauded in Moscow.

Kyiv, which knows the value of American promises

Volodymyr Zelensky has not commented. He knows. Since 1994 and the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine has learned the hard way what written guarantees are worth when the wind changes in Washington. Today, Iran is getting without signing what others have never obtained by signing. This reversal is not a diplomatic detail. It is an earthquake.

And yet, in Kyiv as in Taipei, the fight continues. People continue to believe that resistance pays off, that dignity matters, that standing firm is worth something. They are holding firm. While Washington is giving in.

There’s a Ukrainian word I learned this year: стійкість. It’s pronounced “stiïkist.” It means steadfastness that does not yield. This word has no exact equivalent in French. And I don’t think it has one in the White House’s current vocabulary either.

No text. No signature. No neutral witness.

As of this writing, there is no public document regarding the alleged agreement. No joint press conference. No parliamentary ratification planned, either in Washington or Tehran. No verification mechanism announced. No trusted third party designated.

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s personal envoy, speaks of “significant progress.” Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, speaks of “partial understandings.” Two phrases that do not mean the same thing. Two phrases that, in diplomacy, signal that there is nothing.

Does the agreement exist, or is it already stillborn?

Henry Kissinger once said, “An agreement that must be announced before it is signed does not exist.” Trump has made the announcement. Nothing has been signed. Perhaps nothing will ever be signed. But in the meantime, the destroyers have been ordered to redeploy. The allies have lost confidence. Tehran has bought itself time.

And yet, in six months, when the agreement has evaporated without a trace, who will remember this suspension? Who will remember Reza, Aravind, Joseph? Who will remember the destroyers that returned to port while the drones continued to fly? No one. Except us, perhaps. If we decide not to forget.

One last thing. This morning, I looked at a satellite photo of the strait, taken three days ago. Thirteen oil tankers are shown waiting there. Thirteen crews. Several hundred men. None of them know that their safety depends on a triumphant press release written by someone who has never met them. They’re sailing on. They’re carrying on. The world, meanwhile, is looking the other way.

Donald Trump has suspended “Project Freedom” for a deal that only he still believes in. The Revolutionary Guards haven’t dismantled anything. Sailors continue to cross over. The allies are silent, stunned. The markets are rising out of anxiety. This deal doesn’t exist. Maybe it will. Maybe it never will.

Reza Pahlavi will call his mother tonight from his hospital room in Doha. He is 23 years old. He lost his left leg so that people could tweet about historic agreements. He will not set sail again. He will never have the freedom to do so.

Signed, Maxime Marquette, columnist