ANALYSIS: Trump, the CIA, and the Sexual Orientation of Iran’s New Supreme Leader — When Intelligence Becomes a Weapon of Destabilization

A country where your sexual orientation can cost you your life

Iran criminalizes same-sex relationships under its Islamic Penal Code, which is based on Sharia law. Penalties range from flogging to imprisonment, and in some cases, even the death penalty. The vice police, revolutionary courts, and morality units enforce these laws with a rigor that leaves no room for ambiguity.

Iranians who engage in same-sex relationships do so in absolute secrecy, under the constant threat of denunciation, arrest, and execution. Those who can flee the country. The rest disappear into a silence that the world prefers to ignore.

And yet—a striking paradox—Iran is one of the few countries in the region to authorize and even fund sex reassignment surgeries. This policy, stemming from a fatwa issued by Ayatollah Khomeini, is often presented by the authorities as a “solution” to homosexuality: if you are attracted to the same sex, it is because you were born in the wrong body. Human rights organizations denounce this logic as a form of forced conversion.

What This Allegation Means for the Iranian Government

In a country where homosexuality is punishable by death, accusing the Supreme Leader of being homosexual is no trivial matter. It is an existential attack on the very legitimacy of theocratic rule. If the person who embodies the supreme religious authority is accused of violating the strictest religious law, the entire edifice begins to crumble.

Trump knows this. The CIA knows this. And that is precisely why this information was leaked—not out of concern for the truth, but as a tool of destabilization.

Timing speaks louder than words

Trump did not let this information slip by accident. On the same day, he announced a ten-day pause in U.S. strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure—a pause he presented as a concession granted at Tehran’s request. On the same day, he mentioned a 15-point peace plan that Iran should accept, potentially through Pakistan’s mediation.

The sequence is crystal clear: I’m offering you a way out, but I’m reminding you that I have what it takes to destroy you from within. The allegation about Mojtaba Khamenei is not a passing remark. It’s a coded message sent to Iranian factions that might challenge the succession.

And yet, the chosen format—a casual interview on Fox News, punctuated by jokes about “Gays for Palestine”—gives Trump what he’s always looking for: plausible deniability. It was just an informal conversation. He was merely repeating what “a lot of people are saying.”

The Art of Presidential Rumor-Mongering

There is a term in intelligence for this technique: a “white influence operation”—potentially true information, disseminated through an official channel, with the aim of producing a specific political effect. The difference from “black disinformation” is that the source does not hide.

Trump is the source. Fox News is the channel. And the intended effect is twofold: to undermine Mojtaba Khamenei in the eyes of the Iranian clerical establishment, and to signal to rival factions that Washington has compromising information on the new Supreme Leader.

It is a formidably effective weapon in a country where religious legitimacy is the absolute prerequisite for power.

An Heir in the Shadows

Mojtaba Khamenei has spent most of his political career behind the scenes of Iranian power. Unlike his father, who served as president of the republic before becoming Supreme Leader, Mojtaba has never held an elected office. He exercised his power through the Beit-e Rahbari—the Supreme Leader’s office—and the networks of the Basij, the paramilitary militia affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards.

Western analysts describe him as a methodical, secretive, and deeply conservative man, whose influence over appointments within Iran’s security apparatus was considerable long before his father’s death. His marriage to Haddad-Adel’s daughter had given him access to conservative parliamentary circles, completing a network of power that spanned the religious, military, and political spheres.

A Contested Succession Amid Chaos

The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the U.S.-Israeli strikes has created a power vacuum unprecedented in the history of the Islamic Republic. The succession, which is supposed to be managed by the Assembly of Experts—a body of 88 clerics—is unfolding amid war conditions, under bombardment, with a decapitated chain of command.

Mojtaba Khamenei’s current whereabouts remain unknown. And yet, it is this phantom figure whom Trump has just thrust into the harshest global spotlight.

What We Actually Know

Let’s take an honest look at the facts. We have: a tabloid article citing anonymous sources. A president who confirms he was briefed by the CIA on the matter. And no evidence that can be verified by independent sources.

The CIA will not comment. The Iranian government will not respond—to do so would lend credibility to the accusation. The Iranian media are under state control and will not touch the subject. The few Iranians who might have firsthand information are either dead from the strikes, on the run, or too terrified to speak out.

We are therefore in an epistemological gray area where the information is simultaneously unverifiable and impossible to disprove. It is the perfect playground for information warfare.

The Trap of Impossible Verification

And therein lies the tactical genius—or cynicism—of this disclosure. Whether the allegation is true or false is of no operational significance. What matters is the effect it produces. The moment the President of the United States publicly states that the CIA considers Iran’s new Supreme Leader to be gay, doubt is sown. And in Iran’s theocratic system, doubt is enough.

Mojtaba Khamenei’s rival factions—and there are many—now have a weapon of delegitimization supplied by Washington. Whether the information is accurate or fabricated, it produces the same result: the weakening of the designated successor.

The Rhetorical Maneuver Decoded

In the same interview, Trump shifted abruptly from his allegation against Mojtaba Khamenei to an attack on pro-Palestinian activists in the West. “I sort of have to smile to myself when I see people trying to defend the Palestinian regime for women. But they kill women if you don’t wear a certain cloth all over your face. When I look at ‘Gays for Palestine,’ but they kill gays.”

The maneuver is remarkably skillful. In a single stroke, Trump accomplishes three things: he discredits Iran’s Supreme Leader, he delegitimizes Western pro-Palestinian movements, and he paradoxically positions himself as a defender of LGBTQ+ rights—despite the fact that his administration has systematically dismantled federal protections for transgender people and sexual minorities.

And yet, no one on the set of The Five pointed out this spectacular contradiction.

Hypocrisy as a Method of Governance

Trump is not defending LGBTQ+ people in Iran. He is exploiting their persecution to serve two simultaneous objectives: destabilizing Tehran and discrediting the American left. Human rights are not the end goal—they are the means.

This exploitation has a name in academic literature: “pinkwashing”—the strategic use of gay rights to justify aggressive foreign policies while ignoring them domestically. Israel has been accused of the same practice. Trump has just turned it into a weapon of information warfare on a presidential scale.

When the President Burns His Own Sources

Every time a president publicly reveals the contents of a classified briefing, he sends a devastating message to intelligence officers in the field: your information could end up on Fox News tomorrow morning. This message has real-world consequences.

Human sources—spies, informants, defectors—agree to risk their lives in exchange for a fundamental guarantee: that their information will be protected. When the President of the United States uses that information as a talking point on television, that guarantee crumbles.

This isn’t the first time Trump has done this. He had already shared classified Israeli intelligence with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in the Oval Office in 2017. The pattern is recurring, and its consequences are cumulative.

The CIA Faces a President Who Talks Too Much

Successive CIA directors have learned to tailor their briefings to account for Trump’s propensity to disclose sensitive information. According to several former intelligence officials, briefings intended for Trump are deliberately simplified and watered down to minimize the damage in the event of a leak.

Think about that for a second. The commander-in-chief of the world’s leading power receives watered-down briefings because his own intelligence agencies don’t trust him. And yet, even these watered-down briefings end up on Fox News.

A Country Decapitated by Bombs

To understand the significance of Trump’s statement, one must grasp the extent of the chaos in which Iran finds itself. The U.S.-Israeli strikes in March 2026 killed the Supreme Leader, a significant portion of the Revolutionary Guards’ command structure, and several key figures in the political and religious establishment.

The question “Who is leading Iran?” currently has no clear answer. The Assembly of Experts, theoretically responsible for appointing a new Supreme Leader, is operating under wartime conditions. Communications are disrupted. Rival factions are sizing each other up. And in the midst of this vacuum, Washington has just thrown an informational grenade at the most likely successor.

The Factions Lying in Wait

Iran is not a monolith. Behind the theocratic facade, several centers of power are vying for the regime’s future. The Revolutionary Guards—or what remains of them—constitute an autonomous force with their own economic and strategic interests. The clergy in Qom has never been unanimously supportive of the Khamenei dynasty. Pragmatic technocrats dream of normalizing relations with the West.

The allegation regarding Mojtaba Khamenei gives each of these factions additional leverage to challenge his succession. Whether true or not, it changes Iran’s internal political equation. And that is exactly what Washington is seeking.

Global Economic Strangulation as a Response

While Trump speaks on Fox News, Iran is tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes. This is the only card Tehran can still play: if you destroy us, we’ll take the global economy down with us.

Oil market analysts estimate that a prolonged closure of the strait could drive the price per barrel beyond $150, triggering a global recession. Iran, cornered militarily, has made this existential threat its primary bargaining chip.

And yet, Trump continues to treat the Iranian crisis like a TV show, alternating between CIA revelations and comments about “Gays for Palestine.” The disconnect between the gravity of the situation and the flippant way it’s being handled is staggering.

Pakistan as an Unlikely Mediator

Trump’s 15-point peace plan, potentially channeled through Pakistan, faces a fundamental obstacle: Iran publicly denies any participation in negotiations. Back channels exist—they have always existed—but the gap between stated positions and secret conversations has never been wider.

In this context, the disclosure of the allegation against Mojtaba Khamenei makes any negotiations more difficult. How can an Iranian leader sit down at a table—even a secret one—with an adversary who has just attempted to destroy him personally in front of millions of people?

When a Tabloid Becomes a Primary Source for Foreign Policy

The New York Post article that broke this story relies on anonymous, unverifiable sources. It was published in a tabloid known for its ties to the pro-Trump political ecosystem. Jesse Watters, who asked Trump the question on Fox News, is a host whose role consists less of asking questions than of feeding him lines.

The news cycle goes like this: a leak from the CIA to a friendly tabloid → a leading question on Fox News → a live presidential confirmation. The whole process functions as a machine for whitewashing intelligence, transforming a classified assessment into “what everyone is saying.”

And the media outlets that pick up the story—including the most reputable ones—unwittingly become links in this chain.

The Columnist’s Dilemma When Faced with the Unverifiable

Writing about this case poses a fundamental ethical problem. To relay the allegation is to participate in the influence operation. Ignoring it means missing a major geopolitical event—a president disclosing classified intelligence live on air. The only responsible course of action is one of radical transparency about what we know, what we don’t know, and what this disclosure reveals about its author rather than its target.

What we know: Trump said this. What we don’t know: whether it’s true. What we can analyze: why he said it, at that precise moment, in that precise way.

The Spectacle of Destruction as Entertainment

A country is being bombed. Its supreme leader has been assassinated. His potential successor is the target of a campaign to destabilize him personally. Millions of people live in fear of airstrikes. And the President of the United States discusses it between jokes on Fox News, in a format designed for entertainment.

There is something deeply obscene about this normalization of chaos as a televised spectacle. War, death, the destruction of a country—all of this is reduced to a talk-show segment sandwiched between commercial breaks.

And we watch. And we comment. And we move on to the next topic.

Sexual Orientation as a Geopolitical Weapon

We must call out what is happening. A human being’s sexual orientation is being used as a weapon of war. Whether Mojtaba Khamenei is gay or not is not the issue. The issue is: in what kind of world do we consider it acceptable to use a person’s sexual identity as a tool for political destabilization?

This tactic doesn’t just threaten Mojtaba Khamenei. It sends a message to every gay person living in a country where homosexuality is criminalized: your identity can be exploited by any power, at any time, for any political purpose. You are not a person—you are an exploitable vulnerability.

A precedent that will not be forgotten

U.S. presidents have always used intelligence to serve their political goals. Colin Powell brandishing his vial before the UN in 2003 remains the most devastating example. But at least in that episode, there was an attempt at solemnity—an institutional setting, a prepared speech, a structured argument.

Trump has just crossed a qualitative threshold. Classified intelligence is no longer used within a formal diplomatic setting—it is dumped into a casual televised conversation, without preparation, without context, and without regard for the consequences. Intelligence is no longer a tool for decision-making—it is a tool for entertainment.

The Ongoing Erosion of Institutions

Every institution has its standards, its practices, its safeguards. U.S. intelligence relies on confidentiality. Diplomacy relies on discretion. Negotiations rely on trust. Trump attacked all three of these pillars in a single interview.

And the most troubling thing is not that he did it. It’s that no one seems surprised. The transgression has become so routine that it no longer even provokes outrage. We’ve been numbed. And this numbness may be Trump’s most profound victory—not over Iran, but over our collective ability to distinguish the normal from the unacceptable.

War by Other Means

Clausewitz said that war is the continuation of politics by other means. Trump has reversed the formula: politics is the continuation of war by other means. And the Fox News microphone has become as dangerous as a cruise missile—capable of destroying a man, a legitimacy, a regime, without any court being able to hold anyone accountable.

Mojtaba Khamenei, wherever he may be tonight, now knows that the President of the United States has personally targeted him. Not with a bomb—but with something potentially more devastating within Iran’s theocratic system: an accusation that, whether true or false, can never be washed away.

And Trump? He’s already moved on to the next topic. The TSA needs funding. The ten-day pause on strikes against Iran has begun. The show goes on.

But somewhere amid the rubble of a bombed-out Iran, somewhere in the silent corridors of Langley, somewhere in newsrooms torn between reporting the facts and spreading propaganda, yet another red line has just been crossed. And like all the red lines crossed since 2016, this one won’t be defended. It will simply be forgotten.

Until the next one.

Signed, Jacques PJ Provost