COLUMN: Trump and Meloni Split Up in Public — The Pope, Iran, and the End of an Illusion

Strikes Ordered Without a Phone Call

While the vitriol directed at the pope had cracked the alliance, it was the war in Iran that shattered it. When U.S. forces launched their first strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, Meloni was not warned. She was not consulted. She wasn’t even informed through the usual diplomatic channels. She found out like everyone else—through the 24-hour news channels.

The humiliation was no accident. It was systemic. Trump doesn’t consult his allies because he doesn’t consider them allies—only spectators and followers.

U.S. bases in Italy, suddenly problematic

And yet, it is indeed from bases located on Italian soil that certain logistical operations for the Iranian campaign were coordinated. Aviano. Sigonella. Camp Darby. Names that Italians are suddenly rediscovering with a newfound acuity. The question that had until then been purely theoretical has now become a burning issue: Is Italy a sovereign ally or a U.S. military platform that has no say in the wars launched from its own soil?

Meloni can no longer sidestep this question. Every day that the Iranian conflict continues without Italy having been consulted transforms its status as a privileged ally into that of a willing vassal. And in Italian politics, vassalage is a mortal sin that even the most skilled spin doctors cannot gloss over.

What analysts had seen, what Meloni refused to see

Since Meloni’s election in October 2022, certain media outlets—especially in the Anglo-Saxon world—had constructed a narrative of a transatlantic populist axis. Trump and Meloni, united by their rejection of immigration, their distrust of multilateral institutions, and their anti-elite rhetoric. The narrative was compelling. It was also fundamentally false.

For it conflated rhetorical convergence with strategic convergence. Meloni and Trump speak the same political language—but they do not want the same thing. Meloni wants a strong Italy within a strong Europe. Trump wants America alone at the top, and views Europe as a trade competitor that must be weakened.

The misunderstanding was no mere hiccup. It was the very foundation of the relationship.

Tariffs: The Slow Poison

Even before Iran and the pope, there were the tariffs. The tariffs imposed by Washington on European exports hit Italy hard. Parmesan, Prosecco, the auto industry, luxury textiles—entire sectors of the Italian economy found themselves subject to surcharges by the president whom Meloni called her friend.

Every billion euros lost in exports made Meloni’s pro-Trump stance a little more untenable. Lombard industrialists aren’t ideologues—they read balance sheets. And those balance sheets all said the same thing: friendship with Trump is costing Italy dearly.

The Strategic Cost of European Isolation

The trap is closing in. For two years, Meloni played the American card against Brussels. She used her relationship with Trump as leverage in negotiations with Macron and Scholz. She hinted that Italy had options, that Europe wasn’t its only horizon. A classic “go-it-alone” strategy—except that those who go it alone always end up discovering why others travel in groups.

Today, Meloni finds herself without Trump and without Europe. Washington treats her as a nonentity. Brussels, which she spent two years provoking, has no reason to extend a hand to her.

Macron and Scholz are watching—and taking notes

In Paris and Berlin, Meloni’s humiliation is being viewed with a mix of schadenfreude and strategic calculation. Macron, whom Meloni had publicly challenged on the issue of migration, needs not to comment—the facts speak for themselves. Scholz, entangled in his own crises, finds in the Meloni-Trump fiasco a golden argument for defending European strategic autonomy.

And yet, no one in Europe has any interest in seeing Italy collapse diplomatically. The eurozone’s third-largest economy cannot become a pariah state within the Western alliance without everyone paying the price. The question, therefore, is not whether Europe will reach out to Meloni—but at what cost.

The Meloni case is merely a symptom

Reducing this crisis to a clash of personalities would be a serious mistake. What is at stake between Trump and Meloni goes far beyond their two egos. It is the very model of the transatlantic relationship that has just been shattered—and Meloni is merely the first to bear the brunt of it.

For the lesson is universal: no European leader can build their foreign policy on a personal relationship with an American president. Not with Trump. Not with anyone. American foreign policy is not based on friendships—it is based on interests. And when American interests diverge from European interests, friendship melts away like snow in the Florida sun.

Europe Without a Safety Net

If the European leader closest to Trump can be treated with such contempt, what can the others hope for? The question is rhetorical—and its answer is terrifying for anyone who still counts on the American umbrella.

NATO still exists on paper. Article 5 has not been repealed. But when a U.S. president launches a war in the Middle East without even informing his closest allies, what is the promise of collective defense actually worth? The answer can be seen in Meloni’s eyes—and it reassures no one.

The Nationalist International—An Oxymoron in Action

There is something deeply ironic about the collapse of the Trump-Meloni alliance. Both leaders claimed to be nationalists—advocating the absolute primacy of the national interest over all other considerations. Yet it is precisely this nationalism that makes any alliance between them structurally impossible.

An American nationalist wants America first. An Italian nationalist wants Italy first. These two ambitions are mathematically incompatible as soon as a conflict of interest arises. The populist international has never been anything more than a conference slogan—a contradiction in terms that geopolitical reality always ends up exposing.

And yet, how many European leaders continue to believe that they will be the exception? That their relationship with Trump will be different? That their personal charm will be enough to sway the American imperial machine?

Orbán, Le Pen, Next on the List

Viktor Orbán is watching from Budapest. Marine Le Pen is recalibrating from Paris. All the leaders of Europe’s populist right who had bet on Trump as their guardian must now recalculate their course. If Meloni—the most strategic, the most disciplined, the most professional among them—has been crushed, what will happen to them when their turn comes?

The answer lies in the question. And that question should keep them awake at night.

A conflict that’s reshuffling the deck

The U.S. military campaign against Iran isn’t just claiming victims in the Middle East. It’s also claiming political victims in Europe. Every U.S. strike forces every European leader to take a stance—and every stance comes at a cost.

For Italy, the cost is threefold. Diplomatic cost: being associated with a war it did not choose. Economic cost: soaring energy prices in a country that relies heavily on hydrocarbons. Political cost: an electorate that did not vote for a new military adventure in the Middle East and is beginning to make that clear in the polls.

The Trap of Military Bases

And then there is the issue of the bases. Six U.S. military installations on Italian soil. Thousands of U.S. soldiers stationed on the peninsula. A logistical infrastructure that makes Italy a de facto participant in any U.S. military operation in the Mediterranean and the Middle East—whether it wants to be or not.

This reality, which successive Italian governments have preferred to ignore for decades, is suddenly impossible to conceal. When planes take off from Sigonella for missions related to the conflict with Iran, Italy is no longer neutral. It is, in effect, a co-belligerent. And Meloni, who wasn’t even consulted, finds herself responsible for a war she didn’t declare.

The Election of Leo XIV Is a Game-Changer

The election of American Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as Pope Leo XIV could, in theory, have eased tensions between Washington and the Vatican. An American pope—what better way to reconcile the White House and St. Peter’s Basilica? In practice, however, exactly the opposite happened.

For Leo XIV is no Trump-style pope. He is a pope who knows the United States intimately—and who, precisely for that reason, refuses to serve as a moral endorsement for an administration he considers contrary to the social teachings of the Church.

Rome Against Rome

The result is a situation unprecedented in modern history: an American pope in direct opposition to an American president, and an Italian prime minister caught in the middle. Meloni, who had attempted to position herself as a bridge between Washington and the Vatican, is discovering that no bridge is possible when the two sides are drifting apart at such a rapid pace.

Vatican diplomacy—one of the oldest and most sophisticated in the world—has its own objectives, its own timelines, and its own methods. Trump, who operates through tweets and ultimatums, is structurally incapable of understanding a power that thinks in centuries and acts in whispers.

The Resilience of a Political Survivor

It would be premature to write Giorgia Meloni’s political eulogy. This woman has survived crises that would have destroyed more experienced politicians. She went from leading a party polling at 4% to becoming Prime Minister in less than five years. She has weathered the pandemic, the energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine. Resilience isn’t just a word associated with her—it’s her life story.

And yet, this crisis is of a different nature. It is not a crisis she can resolve through communication—her most formidable weapon. It is a crisis that demands a fundamental strategic repositioning. Meloni must choose: remain in Trump’s orbit and accept vassal status, or make a pivot toward Europe that contradicts everything she has built over the past three years.

The remaining options—none of which come without a cost

Option one: a return to Europe. Meloni swallows her pride, draws closer to Macron and the next German chancellor, and accepts the multilateral framework she has spent years denouncing. Political cost: immense. Her electoral base will not forgive her easily.

Option two: active neutrality. Italy positions itself as a mediator, refusing to choose between Washington and Brussels. An appealing strategy on paper—but history teaches us that countries that refuse to choose end up being chosen by others.

Option three: the status quo. Pretend nothing has happened and wait for the storm to pass. This is the most likely option—and the most dangerous. Because the storm will not pass. It has only just begun.

From Mussolini-Hitler to Trump-Meloni: The Curse of Asymmetrical Duos

The comparison is deliberately provocative—and it has its limits. Obviously, this is not about comparing the regimes. But the mechanism is the same: when a small country allies itself with a large one in a relationship of asymmetric dependence, it is always the smaller one that foots the bill when things go wrong.

Fascist Italy discovered in 1943 that Germany was not an ally but an occupier waiting in the wings. Shinzo Abe’s Japan discovered that “golf diplomacy” with Trump offered no protection against tariffs. Post-Brexit Britain discovered that the “special relationship” with Washington was not worth a decent trade deal.

And yet, every generation of leaders starts all over again. Every generation believes it is the exception. Every generation discovers, too late, that it is not.

The one lesson no one learns

Lasting alliances are built on shared interests and common institutions—not on selfies and one-on-one dinners. That is the lesson of the European Union. That is the lesson of NATO at its best. That is the lesson that Meloni, despite her undeniable political acumen, has refused to learn.

And it’s the lesson that 60 million Italians will pay for out of their own pockets—in the form of tariffs, energy insecurity, and diplomatic marginalization.

A spectacle that Moscow and Beijing are watching with glee

While Trump and Meloni are at each other’s throats, Vladimir Putin is taking notes. So is Xi Jinping. The spectacle of a Western alliance fracturing in public—over the pope, over Iran, over tariffs—is a strategic gift to all those who want to demonstrate that the Western model is in terminal decline.

Every invective Trump hurls at the Vatican reinforces the Russian narrative of a decadent West. Every public humiliation of Meloni reinforces the Chinese narrative of a vassalized Europe. Geopolitics is not a zero-sum game—but when the West loses cohesion, others gain influence.

Ukraine: Silent Collateral Damage

And amid all this noise, who’s still talking about Ukraine? The Trump-Meloni crisis is sucking up European media and diplomatic attention at a time when Kyiv desperately needs attention, ammunition, and solidarity. Every day spent dealing with the collateral damage of Trump’s ego is a day when Ukraine fights a little more on its own.

This may be the most obscene cost of this rift—not what it does to Trump’s and Meloni’s careers, but what it does to those who are dying while the powerful squabble.

The Warnings That Were Ignored

Italian intelligence agencies had warned her. Career diplomats at the Palazzo della Farnesina had warned her. Analysts, editorialists, European allies—everyone had warned Meloni that her relationship with Trump was a ticking time bomb.

She chose not to listen. Not out of naivety—Meloni is not naive—but out of political calculation. The relationship with Trump gave her international visibility disproportionate to a medium-sized country. It allowed her to position herself as an indispensable intermediary between Europe and America. It reinforced her image as a bold leader, capable of playing in the big leagues.

The calculation was rational. It was also catastrophically short-sighted.

The Responsibility of Those Who Applauded

And yet, Meloni is not the only one to blame. The media that celebrated the “new special relationship” between Rome and Washington. The commentators who saw the Trump-Meloni duo as an “axis of stability.” The diplomats who turned a blind eye to the contradictions because the status quo was comfortable. All bear a share of the responsibility for the collective blindness that made this crisis possible.

Complacency toward superficial alliances is not a diplomatic virtue. It is cowardice that always comes at a price.

A Bleak Scenario: Accelerated Fragmentation

In the worst-case scenario, the Trump-Meloni rift spreads to all transatlantic relations. Each European country retreats into its own national interests. NATO becomes an empty shell. A united European defense remains nothing more than a PowerPoint presentation. And the next major conflict—in the Mediterranean, the Balkans, or the Arctic—finds a Europe that is divided, unarmed, and disoriented.

Optimistic scenario: a wake-up call from the crisis

In the best-case scenario, Meloni’s humiliation serves as a wake-up call. Italy makes its pivot toward Europe. France and Germany welcome Rome’s return with pragmatism rather than resentment. A European defense policy ceases to be a concept and becomes a budget. And the Trump-Meloni lesson goes down in history as the moment when Europe finally understood that it could count only on itself.

The first scenario is the most likely. The second is the most necessary. The gap between the two measures exactly the distance separating Europe from its own destiny.

The End of a World That Believed in Shortcuts

The Trump-Meloni split is not a mere diplomatic hiccup. It is the verdict on an era that believed it could replace institutions with personalities, structural alliances with ideological affinities, and strategy with spectacle.

That era is not over. Trump is still president. Meloni is still prime minister. The same forces that brought them to power are still at work. But something has broken in the narrative—and what has broken cannot be mended.

When the masks come off, all that remains are interests

The smiles of Mar-a-Lago are a distant memory. Prolonged handshakes belong to another world. What remains, once the camera flashes and triumphant press releases are stripped away, is the stark truth of international power dynamics: the United States has no friends—it has interests. Europe has no protector; it has a master who no longer even consults it before going to war.

And Giorgia Meloni, alone in her office at Palazzo Chigi, contemplates the ruins of an alliance she had carefully built and that Donald Trump destroyed with a wave of his hand—without even realizing it. Perhaps that is the cruelest part of all. For Trump, Italy was never important enough to warrant deliberate betrayal. It was simply forgotten. And in the vocabulary of geopolitics, being forgotten is infinitely worse than being betrayed.

By Jacques PJ Provost