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A figure that reveals everything the official statements are hiding

We need to put a number on the table: according to reports dated January 14, 2026, Ukraine had approximately 200,000 soldiers who were absent without leave (AWOL). This is not just a statistical detail. It is a sign of a massive breakdown in trust between the military and the men it mobilizes. These are soldiers who have decided, individually or collectively, that the conditions of their service were unacceptable.

Not all of these 200,000 are cowards. Many are men who served honorably, who saw comrades die, who waited for a rotation that never came. Men who ultimately voted with their feet against an institution that treated them as indefinitely renewable resources rather than as human beings with limits. The current reform must be seen in part as a response to this phenomenon.

The New Pay Structure: Necessary but Insufficient

The pay raise is real and welcome. 300,000 hryvnias per month for a front-line soldier in Ukraine is substantial—about $6,700 at the current exchange rate, in a country where the median wage was just a few hundred dollars before the war. For some soldiers from economically disadvantaged regions, this is more than they would have earned in a decade of work during peacetime.

But money is no substitute for safety. It is no substitute for the promise of a possible return home. It is no substitute for the ability to plan for the future, to tell one’s family when one will return. For soldiers who have been fighting since 2022, the bonus will ring hollow as long as there is no clear mechanism for rotation or demobilization. Money is compensation. What they need is a sense of hope.


Ukraine finds itself in a position I wouldn’t wish on any government: it must either lie to its soldiers or tell them a truth that shatters their morale. Between the two, it has chosen a third path—paying them better to make the impossible a little more bearable. It’s pragmatic. It’s also deeply sad.

This content was created with the help of AI.

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