OPEN LETTER: Thank you, Bulgaria, for proving that NATO can still keep its word

Maxime Marquette

2026-07-06 02:23:38

A Rare and Well-Deserved Recognition

According to remarks reported by Fakti.bg, General Grynkewich offered a remarkably glowing assessment of Bulgaria as an ally: “A stronger Bulgaria contributes to a stronger Europe and a stronger NATO,” he said, adding that the country “not only meets the commitments it made in The Hague in 2025, but has already exceeded the 2% of GDP requirement for defense.”

This is no trivial detail. In an Alliance where several members are still struggling to reach the 2% threshold, seeing a country like Bulgaria exceed it—with a trajectory toward 5% of GDP by 2035—deserves to be highlighted loud and clear.

Concrete Evidence Behind the Words

The general noted that Bulgaria has already received its first batch of eight F-16 Block 70 fighter jets and is awaiting the delivery of 183 Stryker combat vehicles. These are not distant promises: they are ongoing, documented, and verifiable deliveries.

This modernization of military equipment is accompanied by a less visible but equally crucial effort: increasing the Bulgarian military’s interoperability within NATO’s command structures—a process that takes years to bear fruit.

This kind of official statement sometimes rings hollow when coming from certain leaders. Here, the numbers back up the words, and that is precisely what distinguishes a serious ally from one that is content with mere press releases.

Security in the Black Sea: A Committed Strategic Priority

A Theater All Too Often Overlooked

Discussions in Sofia focused largely on security in the Black Sea, a strategic theater that, in my view, remains underreported by Western media compared to other fronts. Yet it is there that a crucial part of the West’s ability to contain Russian ambitions in the region is at stake.

The strengthening of joint missions between Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey to protect critical undersea infrastructure is a direct response to suspected acts of sabotage against cables and pipelines observed in the region in recent years.

Trilateral Coordination Taking Shape

This cooperation among three Black Sea littoral states, each with its own national priorities, is no diplomatic given. The fact that it is making concrete progress—with joint missions already under active discussion—illustrates a regional strategic maturity that deserves to be commended rather than taken for granted.

This trilateral dynamic could, in the long run, become a model for other sensitive areas along NATO’s eastern flank, where coordination among neighbors often remains more complicated than it appears.

The Black Sea doesn’t make the headlines as much as other fronts, but it is precisely the kind of low-profile issue where the West’s true credibility vis-à-vis Moscow is at stake.

The Bulgarian Example in Light of the Lag Among Some Allies

A jarring contrast, but one that must be acknowledged

Let’s be blunt: not all NATO members behave like Bulgaria. Several long-standing allies—which are wealthier and more populous—are still struggling to meet the collectively agreed-upon defense spending thresholds, a situation that has for years fueled criticism, particularly from Donald Trump, regarding the unequal burden-sharing within the Alliance.

On this specific point, I must admit that Trump’s criticism of certain European partners deemed too timid regarding their defense budgets was not without merit, even if his communication style was often deemed harsh by European diplomats.

What Bulgaria Demonstrates in Practice

Bulgaria’s trajectory demonstrates that a country with more limited economic resources than those of Germany or France can, with clear political will, exceed its obligations to the Alliance. This undermines the facile argument of those who claim that the Western defense effort is structurally unsustainable.

This contrast should, logically, serve as a spur to European capitals that are still dragging their feet on their budgetary commitments to NATO.

I give Trump credit on this specific point: he was right to push hard for military burden-sharing, even if I don’t always like the way he does it. Here, when it comes to military matters, a firm stance pays off.

The Ankara Summit as a backdrop

A Visit Timed to Fit the Schedule

The timing of this visit is no coincidence. Traveling to Bulgaria just before the Ankara summit on July 7 and 8, 2026, allows SACEUR to come to the negotiating table with concrete examples of success to present to the other members of the Alliance.

Turkey, the summit’s host, has expressed clear expectations regarding unity and solidarity among allies—a message that the visit to Bulgaria reinforces through example rather than mere rhetoric.

What We Can Hope for from Ankara

Without succumbing to naive optimism, it is reasonable to hope that the Ankara summit will further consolidate the commitments made in The Hague in 2025, particularly regarding the trajectory toward spending 5% of GDP on defense by 2035—an ambitious goal but one now deemed achievable by several capitals.

The presence of nearly 100 delegations at this summit attests to the diplomatic significance of the event, in a geopolitical context where every sign of Western unity matters in the face of the ambitions of Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran.

I remain cautious about major summits, which often produce more photo ops than concrete results. But the context of this one—with the war in Ukraine still raging—leaves little room for leniency toward allies who might still be dragging their feet.

Bulgaria's Military Modernization: A Major Undertaking

From Airplanes to Armored Vehicles

In addition to the F-16 Block 70s already delivered, Bulgaria is undertaking a complete overhaul of its ground forces with the announced arrival of 183 Stryker vehicles. This modernization thus affects both the air and ground components of its military—an effort rarely undertaken so simultaneously by a country of this size.

This equipment transformation is part of a broader budgetary framework in which Bulgaria has successfully converted financial resources into real combat capabilities, as General Grynkewich himself noted during his visit.

The Role of European Funds in This Transformation

This modernization is not taking place in a vacuum. Discussions in Sofia also focused on the more effective use of the Alliance’s and the European Union’s financial instruments in the defense sector, particularly to expand regional connectivity among neighboring countries on the southeastern flank.

This alignment between European funding and NATO’s military objectives illustrates a growing institutional convergence between the two organizations, which have long been criticized for bureaucratic redundancies.

Finally, seeing European funds and NATO’s objectives converge rather than overlap unnecessarily is exactly the kind of technocratic progress that cannot be celebrated enough.

The shadow cast by the war in Ukraine on this visit

A southeastern flank looking eastward with concern

It is impossible to understand this visit without placing it in the context of the war Russia has been waging against Ukraine since 2022. The Black Sea is directly affected by this conflict, whether through tensions over maritime traffic, incidents involving drifting mines, or Russian military maneuvers in the region.

Strengthening NATO’s southeastern flank is therefore not a theoretical exercise: it is a direct response to a neighborhood that has objectively become more dangerous since the Russian invasion.

President Zelensky, a moral beacon in these times

In this context, the Ukrainian resistance—led for years by President Volodymyr Zelensky—continues to serve as a moral compass for all countries on NATO’s eastern flank, including Bulgaria, which view military resolve as a condition for survival rather than just one diplomatic option among many.

This de facto solidarity between the countries on the southeastern flank and besieged Ukraine illustrates a regional realization that collective security can no longer be negotiated as a secondary issue.

In my view, Zelensky remains one of the few contemporary political figures whose physical and political courage far exceeds mere rhetoric. It is no coincidence that he is implicitly referenced in discussions of regional security.

Legitimate criticisms that should not be dismissed

Reasonable Skepticism About Long-Term Goals

It would be disingenuous to portray this visit as an unqualified success story. Some analysts in the region, cited by several Bulgarian media outlets, remain skeptical about Bulgaria’s actual ability to maintain its spending trajectory through 2035, particularly in the event of an economic slowdown or domestic political change.

This skepticism deserves to be heard rather than dismissed out of hand: fifteen-year budget commitments remain, by their very nature, more fragile than actual deliveries that have already taken place.

Internal Bulgarian Political Tensions to Watch

Bulgaria is also experiencing internal debates over certain regional proposals for naval cooperation, particularly regarding a Romanian proposal for a joint naval force that has caused divisions between the prime minister and President Radev, according to reports by Novinite.

These internal tensions serve as a reminder that the unity displayed during official visits should not obscure very real political debates over the best way to fulfill these defense commitments.

I refuse to turn this text into an uncritical endorsement of Bulgarian diplomacy. The internal tensions are real, and to ignore them would be to betray the standard of rigor I have set for myself.

What This Means for the Rest of Eastern Europe

A Model for Romania and Greece to Follow

Bulgaria’s trajectory could serve as a model for other countries on the southeastern flank, such as Romania and Greece, both of which face similar challenges in military modernization amid a regional environment that is more unstable than it was a decade ago.

If this regional dynamic continues, it could gradually transform NATO’s entire southeastern flank into a zone of credible deterrence rather than a link perceived as secondary to the more high-profile northeastern flank.

Turkey’s Role as Host and Key Player

By hosting the Ankara summit, Turkey is also positioning itself as a central player in this regional dynamic, despite at times strained relations with certain Western partners on other diplomatic issues.

Turkey’s ability to play a unifying role on security issues concerning the southeastern flank, while maintaining distinct positions on other international issues, illustrates both the complexity and the resilience of the Alliance’s internal balances.

Turkey remains a complicated ally—and at times a frustrating one—for Western foreign ministries, but its role as a geographic pivot on this specific issue is difficult to dispute.

Why This Story Deserves Your Attention, Dear Reader

Against Media Fatigue Regarding NATO

I know that many of you feel a sense of weariness regarding the repeated announcements about strengthening NATO, as they often sound so similar from one press release to the next. That is precisely why I wanted to highlight this visit to Bulgaria: because it involves verifiable figures, concrete deliveries, and well-deserved public recognition—rather than just a public relations exercise.

In a world saturated with empty announcements, distinguishing between commitments that have been fulfilled and empty promises seems to me to be a basic journalistic duty, particularly when it comes to issues as crucial as Western collective security.

A Useful Reminder in the Face of the West’s Rivals

As China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea continue to test Western cohesion on multiple fronts simultaneously, every concrete example of effective solidarity within NATO deserves to be documented and celebrated, rather than drowned out by the constant stream of bad geopolitical news.

Bulgaria reminds us, in its own small way, that Western resolve remains possible when political will truly exists, beyond mere rhetoric.

I much prefer to write about a verifiable, modest success than about a spectacular but hollow catastrophe. This letter is my way of highlighting what works, without being naive about what remains fragile.

Lessons to Be Learned for Future NATO Summits

Transparency as a Tool for Credibility

One of the most valuable lessons from this visit to Bulgaria is the value of quantifiable transparency: providing precise percentages, concrete delivery dates, and measurable long-term goals. This approach strengthens the Alliance’s credibility far more effectively than vague diplomatic phrases about “the continued strengthening of the partnership.”

Upcoming NATO summits, including the one in Ankara, would benefit from making this practice of providing quantifiable and verifiable information standard across all member countries, rather than reserving it for the occasional “model students.”

The Need for Rigorous Long-Term Monitoring

In the coming years, it will be necessary to monitor whether Bulgaria actually maintains its trajectory toward 5% of GDP by 2035, and whether other countries on the southeastern flank manage to follow this example rather than merely admiring Bulgaria’s performance from afar.

This rigorous monitoring, over several years, will be the true test of the sincerity of this commitment, far beyond General Grynkewich’s single ceremonial visit to Sofia.

As a columnist, I promise to revisit this issue in the coming years to verify whether Bulgaria’s trajectory lives up to its promises, rather than simply publishing this letter and moving on.

What I personally took away from this visit

Cautious pride, not triumphalism

I conclude this letter with a sense of cautious pride in Bulgaria, without, however, succumbing to misplaced triumphalism. A country of approximately 6.5 million people that exceeds its obligations to the Alliance deserves to be held up as an example, without this obscuring the structural challenges that remain, particularly economic and demographic ones.

This cautious pride must be accompanied by necessary vigilance: the commitments made today will have to be honored year after year, in a budgetary context that could become more challenging.

A message of measured hope for the entire West

If a country with more limited resources than its wealthier Western neighbors can maintain this pace of defense investment, it should inspire a sense of measured hope for the entire Western camp in the face of the challenges posed simultaneously by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

It is this measured hope—based on verifiable facts rather than wishful thinking—that I wanted to share with you in this open letter.

If I had to sum up this letter in one sentence: sometimes, good geopolitical news really does exist—you just have to dig a little beyond the headlines to find it.

What This Means in Practical Terms for Western Deterrence

Another piece in a larger puzzle

Bulgaria’s modernization, on its own, does not alter the overall strategic balance vis-à-vis Russia. But it is another concrete and verifiable piece in a puzzle of collective deterrence that works only if every link holds its position.

This logic of cumulative deterrence, where every national contribution counts, is precisely what distinguishes NATO from a mere alliance on paper: it is a sum of concrete commitments, verifiable country by country.

The Signal Sent to Moscow

For Moscow, every instance of credible reinforcement on the southeastern flank represents yet another signal that the window of opportunity for regional escalation is gradually closing, as Western capabilities grow in concrete rather than symbolic terms.

It is this accumulation of signals, more than any isolated statement, that truly shapes the Kremlin’s strategic calculus regarding its future room for maneuver.

I firmly believe that deterrence is built through small, verifiable steps rather than grand rhetoric, and this visit to Bulgaria is an almost perfect illustration of that.

What Western Allies Should Take Away from This Example

A Military Communication Model Worth Adopting

All too often, Western defense statements are mired in technocratic jargon that is impossible to convey to the general public. The direct style adopted by General Grynkewich—with precise figures and specific deadlines—offers a model of communication that other senior NATO officers would do well to emulate during their own bilateral visits.

This clarity of communication is not merely a cosmetic detail: it enhances the Western public’s understanding of defense spending, which is sometimes perceived as abstract or disconnected from their daily lives.

A Call to Document Successes as Well as Failures

Western media outlets, including those aligned with a pro-Ukraine and pro-NATO editorial line like ours, sometimes tend to focus more on crises and diplomatic failures than on concrete successes such as the one documented in Sofia.

Correcting this imbalance—without succumbing to self-congratulatory propaganda—seems to me essential for maintaining public trust in Western collective defense institutions over the long term.

I believe we underestimate just how necessary it is to report on successes seriously and without complacency—just as much as it is to call out failures. The balance between the two makes all the difference for the credibility of defense journalism.

Conclusion: A Cautious Thank-You Letter to an Ally Who Delivers

Key Takeaways from This Visit

General Grynkewich’s visit to Bulgaria on July 1 and 2, 2026, will stand as a concrete and well-documented example of what a determined NATO ally can achieve: exceeding budget targets, verifiable equipment deliveries, and strengthened regional coordination in the Black Sea.

As the Ankara summit approaches, this kind of example deserves to be highlighted—not as an end in itself, but as a reminder that Western resolve remains possible when genuine political will exists.

What to Watch for Going Forward

It remains to be seen whether this momentum will continue in the coming years, whether other countries on the southeastern flank will follow this example, and whether internal Bulgarian tensions over certain regional proposals will find a constructive rather than paralyzing resolution.

I conclude this letter with the conviction that defense journalism has a duty to celebrate—with the same rigor with which it critiques—allies who keep their word. Bulgaria has just earned this recognition.

Signed, Maxime Marquette, columnist