ANALYSIS: The Sea of Azov—How Ukraine Is Strangling the Russian Fleet

More than 40 strikes since April—a verified fact

Since April 2026, Ukraine has carried out more than 40 attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and in occupied Crimea, according to Euronews—a fact that has been widely corroborated, unlike the naval figure. This land campaign is the foundation for the naval expansion observed in the Sea of Azov. You don’t strike an oil fleet without first striking the refineries that supply it: this is the continuation of the same strategy, encompassing both land and sea.

This is a structural observation: two campaigns converging toward the same objective.

Omsk and Saratov: The Refineries That Are Shutting Down

The context includes documented strikes on the Omsk refinery—Russia’s largest—which, according to Reuters, halted processing, and the suspension of operations in Saratov. These cases illustrate the actual scope of the campaign.

These are verified facts, unlike the naval figure: the pressure on Russia’s oil industry is resulting in concrete production shutdowns.

The FSB Claims to Have Foiled Secret Attacks

Russia has claimed to have foiled “secret” attacks against the Ukrainka and Shagol air bases, according to the FSB as cited by the Los Angeles Times—drones delivered by balloons and transported by car from Bryansk. A Russian internal security claim remains just that: it serves a narrative, just as the Ukrainian figure serves its own.

These FSB statements cannot be independently verified, may be motivated by propaganda, and are never equivalent to a strike documented by multiple agencies.

350 Drones Shot Down Near Moscow

Russian air defenses claim to have shot down 350 Ukrainian drones heading toward Moscow since Sunday, including 50 near the capital, according to Mayor Sobyanin. Governor Vorobyov reports 81 drones shot down on the night of July 12–13, with three fatalities in Pionersky.

These figures, like the Ukrainian naval toll, must be explicitly attributed. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that 134 drones were launched against Ukraine that same night.

Ten Countries Gather in Paris on the Same Day

On July 13, 2026, in Paris, Ukraine and nine other countries announced a ballistic missile defense coalition, while Ukraine’s drone campaign targeted supply lines, ships, and Moscow’s suburbs, according to the Los Angeles Times. The announcement of this coalition on the same day as a spectacular naval victory is no coincidence: it demonstrates that the war is now being fought on multiple fronts simultaneously.

This coalition addresses a defensive need, but both developments strengthen Ukraine’s ability to withstand attacks while launching its own.

The “Spiderweb” precedent: a significant benchmark

Operation “Spiderweb” had destroyed or damaged nearly a third of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet a year earlier, using drones infiltrated into Russian territory.

If the figure of 105 aircraft is confirmed, it would be consistent with the tactical approach already demonstrated by “Spiderweb”: striking high-value targets with low-cost means.

A Commander Who Communicates on Telegram

Brovdi’s decision to share this update via Telegram illustrates a shift in Ukrainian military communication: rapid dissemination, but accountability concentrated in a single voice.

There is no reason to doubt Brovdi’s good faith; the observation concerns the method, not the accuracy of the content, which cannot be independently verified at this stage. Communicating quickly on Telegram comes at a cost: the loss of the institutional filter that typically transforms raw data into a verified assessment.

The Role of Naval Drones in This Campaign

Ukraine’s ability to strike so many ships relies heavily on locally produced naval drones, which threaten maritime targets without a conventional navy comparable to Russia’s. A country without aircraft carriers can still impose a real cost on an opposing fleet, provided it chooses its weapons wisely.

Two Fronts, One Strategic Calculation

The combination of strikes on refineries and the naval campaign outlines a coherent strategy: to reduce Russia’s ability to transport energy and supplies. No source claims a decisive short-term impact. You don’t win a war by sinking oil tankers, but you can make it more costly every day for the side that has to replace them.

This approach is part of a war of attrition in which every ship hit adds another strain to a Russian military apparatus already under pressure.

The Limitations of a War Based on Unverified Figures

The central challenge remains independent verification: neither the Ukrainian naval toll nor the Russian claims have been confirmed by a neutral third-party source.

This limitation does not prevent us from reporting the facts, but it serves as a reminder of their partisan origins.

In the space of a week, the Sea of Azov has become a new theater in Ukraine’s economic war. Whether the figure of 105 ships is accurate or somewhat inflated, it is part of a verifiable trend: more than 40 strikes on oil facilities since April, refineries shut down in Omsk and Saratov, and sustained pressure on the Kremlin’s logistical capabilities.

There is no guarantee that this strategy alone will be enough to change the course of the conflict. With the caution this situation demands, Ukraine has opened a front where every ship hit and every barrel not delivered weighs on Russia’s ability to finance its war. There is a strategic irony in seeing a country without a significant navy become, in the space of a week, a threat to its aggressor’s merchant fleet.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist