FACTCHECK: Does the CSIS’s figure of 1.4 million Russian casualties hold up?

1.42 million casualties reported by the Ukrainian Ministry

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense publishes daily reports on Russian casualties: as of July 16, 2026, the cumulative total reported exceeded 1.42 million Russian soldiers since February 24, 2022, with daily increases ranging from 1,200 to 1,900. The fact that two independent sources—an American think tank and a Ukrainian belligerent—agree on the same order of magnitude reinforces the credibility of the figure, though it does not make it indisputable.

This figure must nevertheless be systematically presented “according to Kyiv”: it comes from a party to the conflict whose strategic interest is to demonstrate the effectiveness of its defense, and it cannot be verified by a neutral third-party source.

Convergence in Order of Magnitude, Not Method

The fact that the figures from CSIS and the Ukrainian ministry are both around 1.4 million for the same period represents a notable convergence, but the two sources use distinct methodologies—statistical modeling for CSIS, operational counts for Kyiv.

7,345 officers identified by name

Mediazona, an independent Russian investigative media outlet, has published a list of confirmed deaths of officers in the Russian military and security services by name: as of July 3, 2026, the total stood at 7,345 confirmed deaths. Seven thousand three hundred forty-five verified names are, in a sense, worth more than a million estimated casualties: this is the difference between counting people and modeling a trend.

The Bashkortostan region has surpassed 10,000 confirmed casualties for the first time—a record among Russian regions—followed by Tatarstan with 8,800 and the Sverdlovsk region with 7,700. These regional names, repeated week after week in the same rankings, paint a precise picture of who is paying the price for this war.

Two methods measuring two different things

Mediazona’s figure does not contradict that of the CSIS: it measures a verifiable fraction—names confirmed by open sources—while the CSIS produces a modeled overall estimate that includes the wounded, the missing, and unconfirmed deaths. Comparing the two would be a methodological error.

2,190 km² in 2025, only 622 km² in 2026

According to Al Jazeera, citing the Institute for the Study of War, Russia had gained 2,190 km² of Ukrainian territory in the first half of 2025, compared to just 622 km² for the same period in 2026—a net gain of 97 km² after accounting for unconsolidated incursions. Losing more soldiers to conquer ten times less territory is not merely a tactical fluctuation: it is a sign of a military machine that is structurally running out of steam.

The ISW calculates a ratio of 1,298 casualties per square kilometer of territory captured in June 2026, compared to just 68 casualties per square kilometer in 2025—an almost twentyfold increase in the human cost of each territorial advance.

Up to 90% of Russian losses attributed to drones

According to Euromaidan Press, the prevalence of FPV drones accounts for a large part of this shift: up to 90% of Russian losses are reportedly attributable to them, with 301,000 FPV drones launched in a single month. This source projects a total of 1.597 million Russian losses for 2026.

This projection, which is higher than the CSIS estimate, should be viewed as an extrapolation based on the trend observed in the first half of the year, not as a confirmed figure. Projecting a trend over an additional six months assumes that it will continue—a reasonable assumption, but an assumption nonetheless.

What three independent sources confirm

The figure of 1.4 million cited by the CSIS is corroborated, in terms of magnitude, by official Ukrainian estimates published at the same time and by the trend of Russia’s territorial gains collapsing, as documented by the ISW. Three sources that measure different things yet still reach compatible conclusions: this is the kind of convergence that deserves to be taken seriously without being presented as an absolute certainty.

However, none of these sources constitutes a complete official Russian casualty report: the Russian government does not publish an exhaustive national tally of its own losses, which means that any estimate must rely on indirect models.

The figure of 1.4 million Russian casualties cited by the CSIS is neither a fabrication nor an absolute certainty: it is a serious estimate, corroborated by independent sources that do not share its methodology but point in the same direction.

What this fact-check allows us to establish with caution is that the trend—rising casualties, declining territorial gains, and reliance on drones—is real and well-documented, even if the exact figure will remain impossible to determine with certainty as long as Moscow does not release its own data. There is a difference between doubting a specific figure and doubting the trend it describes—and that trend, in itself, does not depend on any single source.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist