The figure that sums up the crisis
According to Euronews, crude oil refined into gasoline fell by 25% in June 2026 compared to 2025, to 3.95 million barrels per day—the lowest level in two decades. The figure comes from Christopher Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory, as cited by Euronews and Al Jazeera. A twenty-year decline in a single month: this isn’t a fluctuation; it’s a statistical admission.
Gasoline production fell by 17%, to 850,000 barrels per day compared to 1.03 million a year earlier, and is now below domestic demand. Weafer estimates that one-third of Russia’s refining capacity is offline, due to drone strikes and increased summer demand.
A Response That Lowers Standards
On July 2, a decree lowered gasoline standards at certain refineries from Euro-5 to Euro-3 to maintain volume despite the lower quality. Since April, Ukraine has carried out more than 40 attacks on refineries and oil depots, the most well-documented cause of this collapse.
Thirty-eight regions, a mosaic of rationing
A Fragmented Map
38 Russian regions have imposed gasoline restrictions, some city-wide, others regional. A driver might find gasoline in one city only to discover, a few hundred kilometers away, that gas stations are rationed. A patchwork shortage is more destabilizing than a widespread one: you never know where the line ends.
Three regions—Penza, Irkutsk, and Zabaikalsky Krai—have declared a fuel emergency, joining Crimea and Sevastopol as of June 26, a level of severity rarely seen since 2022.
What the Numbers Don’t Show
There is no centralized national tally of closed gas stations; data remains fragmented on a region-by-region basis. An unidentified Russian official, quoted by Al Jazeera, downplayed the situation, saying, “There is some shortage, but it’s not critical”—a statement contradicted by other, more alarmist sources, indicating conflicting narratives.
Buryatia, the region that pays twice
Poverty Exacerbated by War
The Moscow Times reports on Buryatia, a poor region that has suffered disproportionate military losses. It seems cruel to ask the region that has sacrificed the most lives to also bear the brunt of the shortages.
To boost recruitment, Buryatia has raised its military enlistment bonus to 2.1 million rubles ($27,500), with a budget of 2.4 billion rubles for approximately 1,600 new soldiers.
The Paradox of a Regional War Economy
This increase in military bonuses—funded at a time when gasoline is becoming scarce—illustrates an implicit trade-off between military priorities and civilian needs, evident in the juxtaposition of these facts.
Novak and Moscow's Admission
A Rare Admission at the Highest Level
On July 9 and 10, Deputy Prime Minister Novak admitted, according to Meduza, that there were “problems and shortages caused by airstrikes.” This admission, coming from a high-ranking federal official, confirms at the highest level what regional data had already shown. When a deputy prime minister admits to a shortage caused by enemy strikes, the silence was no longer tenable.
Novak confirmed a fuel export ban that will remain in effect until July 31, 2026—a decision that prioritizes the domestic market at the cost of lost export revenue—a sign of the true scale of the crisis.
What Journalists in Moscow Are Reporting
The testimony gathered by Al Jazeera
Al Jazeera’s report from Moscow, “The crisis is deep,” documents the experiences of ordinary citizens facing shortages—a first-rate source of on-the-ground information. It is these voices, more than any statistics, that make the crisis tangible.
On the same day, Euronews reported on the nationwide decline in production, emphasizing that the population is “feeling the repercussions” of the war in Ukraine, even in the most ordinary aspects of daily life.
The Strategic Significance of Ukrainian Airstrikes
A campaign targeting the root of the problem
According to Weafer, the more than 40 Ukrainian attacks since April are one of the main causes of the loss of one-third of Russia’s refining capacity. Every refinery hit in Russia results, weeks later, in a line stretching thousands of kilometers from the front lines.
This strategy of deep strikes aims to weaken Russia’s war economy by targeting its energy infrastructure rather than just the front lines. The rationing observed in 38 regions is a measurable civilian consequence of a military campaign waged far from the front lines.
Different Trajectories Across Regions
A comparison between occupied Crimea—the first to declare a state of emergency on June 26—and mainland regions such as Penza and Irkutsk, which followed later, shows that the crisis has spread rather than striking the entire Russian territory uniformly at the same time. A crisis that spreads region by region gives authorities time to prepare their public statements, but not enough time to resolve the problem.
This spread corresponds to the cumulative effects of the Ukrainian strikes carried out since April: each week of the campaign seems to have expanded the map of affected regions.
Rationing That Spares No Social Class
Unlike other shortages that primarily affect the poorest, gasoline rationing affects all Russian drivers indiscriminately. This relative universality explains why Moscow could not conceal it indefinitely.
Conclusion
What the independent press has been reporting since late June 2026 is not a temporary shortage but a structural vulnerability evident in the daily lives of millions of Russians: lines at gas stations, lowered gasoline standards, regions under a state of emergency, and a deputy prime minister forced to admit that Ukrainian strikes are affecting supplies. The case of Buryatia, where military bonuses are rising as gasoline becomes scarcer, epitomizes the tension between state priorities and civilian needs.
There is no indication that the crisis will be resolved before the end of summer. What is clear is that a war waged beyond Russia’s borders now has a measurable cost at home—even in the simple act of filling up a car. A gasoline shortage doesn’t make headlines as long as a missile does, but day after day, it wears down the patience of a population that did not vote for this war.
Signature
By Maxime Marquette, columnist
Sources
Primary Sources
- Al Jazeera — “The crisis is deep”: A view from Russia as gasoline shortages worsen — July 2, 2026
- Euronews — Russia’s gasoline crisis worsens as citizens feel the fallout from Moscow’s war — July 2, 2026
- The Moscow Times — A major Russian fuel producer struggles to emerge from the crisis — July 9, 2026
Secondary sources
This content was created with the help of AI.