ANALYSIS: Why Trump Has Become a Thorn in the Side of Meloni and Le Pen

A tightrope walk over the political void

Meloni’s dilemma is structural, not circumstantial. The Economist put it bluntly in its June 2026 issue: her task is to preserve her relations with America while distancing herself from Trump to win over Italians. These two objectives are in direct conflict. Every gesture of closeness toward the White House undermines her domestic standing; every move to distance herself irritates an American president who does not forgive disloyalty. The Italian leader is therefore walking a tightrope, without a safety net, over an abyss where a rival Italian radical right-wing party awaits her, ready to scoop up the disillusioned.

For Meloni, governing now means choosing every morning whom to disappoint: the U.S. president, who demands loyalty, or the Italian electorate, which demands dignity. She can no longer please both on the same day.

Opinion polls explain this shift. When Trump launched a military confrontation with Iran—without consulting his European allies and, according to Truthout, without planning for what would happen if Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz—Italy joined other European countries in denying Washington access to jointly controlled military assets intended for airstrikes. This refusal was no whim: nearly 80% of Italians surveyed in April disapproved of the Trump administration’s handling of the crisis, again according to Truthout. Meloni therefore did not betray Trump out of a sudden change of heart; she was following Italian public opinion, which was overwhelmingly hostile to American military adventurism. Domestic politics took precedence over diplomacy.

Nationalist Solidarity and Electoral Calculations

On the other side of the Alps, Marine Le Pen faces a similar dilemma. The National Rally has long aligned itself ideologically with Trump’s nationalist rhetoric, notes Newsweek. Yet the leader of France’s far right has distanced herself from him. When Trump insulted Meloni, Le Pen chose her side: Rome’s. “He was very insulting, so I fully understand Giorgia Meloni’s reaction, which stems from national pride,” she said on France Culture, according to Politico. It’s a clever move. By defending Meloni, Le Pen is defending a principle—national pride in the face of foreign arrogance—that speaks directly to her base, without having to openly align herself with the anti-Trump camp.

Le Pen has found the ideal rhetorical countermeasure: not attacking Trump, but defending the wounded sovereignty of a fellow leader. In this way, she retains the “sovereignist” label while distancing herself from the man who once embodied it.

Le Pen’s most revealing statement is summed up in a single line, as reported by Politico: “We have no friends in foreign relations.” Coming from a leader who spent years cultivating an ideological kinship with Trumpism, the admission carries significant weight. It marks the end of an illusion. The National Rally now understands that ideological admiration for Trump does not translate into any reciprocal loyalty, and that appearing too close to Washington has become an electoral liability in France. Bardella, the party’s president, took the criticism even further by referring to a return to American “imperial ambitions,” according to Newsweek. The rhetoric is no longer one of alliance, but of mistrust toward a power deemed unpredictable.

A war decided without the allies, suffered by all

The confrontation with Iran served as a catalyst. According to Truthout, Trump embarked on this war without consulting his European allies and without anticipating the consequences of Tehran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which a major portion of the world’s oil passes. For European economies dependent on these oil flows, this recklessness was direct and costly. The European response, including that of Italy, was to deny Washington the use of joint military resources for its airstrikes. This is no minor detail: it was the moment when governments considered close to Trump publicly said no to a U.S. military operation.

A war launched without consulting anyone eventually backfires on the one who wanted it. Trump discovered that even his European admirers refuse to sign a blank check when the bill threatens their own citizens.

The contrast with Ukraine’s stance is worth highlighting, as it sheds light on everything. Since the start of the Russian invasion, Kyiv has repeatedly stated that U.S. reliability under Trump can never be taken for granted, that every commitment can be called into question, bargained away, or suspended. What Ukraine has experienced firsthand, Europe’s hard-line right is now discovering for itself, with regard to Iran. Le Pen summed up Trump’s foreign policy on this issue in one word: “erratic,” according to Newsweek. American unilateralism no longer distinguishes between allies and adversaries; it treats European capitals as variables to be adjusted, whether they are led by the left, the center, or the far right. This lesson resonates across the entire political spectrum of the continent.

When an Attack on an Institution Seals a Rift

A less-discussed episode weighed heavily on the Italian rift. According to Nathalie Tocci, as quoted by Newsweek, the real breaking point between Meloni and Trump occurred when the U.S. president lashed out at the pope. Meloni chose to support Pope Leo, and Trump attacked her in return. For an Italian leader—whose country maintains a unique historical and symbolic bond with the Vatican—taking a stand against the Pope was unthinkable. By attacking the Pope, Trump crossed a line that Italian political culture does not forgive. He forced Meloni to choose between him and an institution revered by millions of Italians.

Trump thinks in terms of deals; Meloni governs a country where certain figures are not up for negotiation. By attacking the pope, he wasn’t testing an ally—he was publicly identifying the side she could not betray.

According to Tocci, Meloni then “naively” attempted to reconcile with Trump in Evian—a move she describes as rather desperate given Trump’s nature and his blatant disdain for Europeans. The attempt failed. The rift, she says, has become much more difficult—perhaps impossible—to mend. It’s important to be precise here: this assessment is an expert analysis, an informed inference, not a fact set in stone. Diplomatic relations are subject to reversals, and nothing precludes a future reconciliation between Rome and Washington. But this assessment raises a troubling question: How many times can a female leader be humiliated before her public closeness to Trump becomes an untenable political burden to bear in front of her own voters?

The model we once admired has become the risk we now fear

We must acknowledge the irony without distorting it. For years, Meloni and Le Pen have drawn part of their legitimacy from a claimed affinity with Trumpism: border control, sovereignty, and hostility toward the Brussels elite. Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party is, according to Truthout, in some respects the heir to Mussolini’s Fascist Party, and generally aligns itself with hard-right populist forces in Europe, including Le Pen’s National Rally. This political family has long looked to Washington as a friendly capital. The current shift is therefore not merely diplomatic: it is about identity.

It is never easy to abandon a model that one has held up as a guiding compass. The European hard right must now explain to its supporters why yesterday’s hero has become today’s problem, without admitting that it had chosen the wrong hero.

Political calculation has ultimately prevailed over ideological affinity. A source quoted by Newsweek puts it bluntly: it is now clear to all European leaders—and finally to Meloni herself—that maintaining a good political relationship with Trump is impossible. Analysts interpret this shift as a combination of genuine substantive disagreements and a growing political risk for leaders deemed too close to Trump. In other words, clinging to Washington no longer pays off and is becoming increasingly costly. Europe’s hard-right is discovering that it has built part of its house on shifting ground, and that it must now move on without losing face in front of the electorate it had convinced to believe in it.

A lesson Kyiv already knows by heart

Let’s look beyond the personal feud. If even Trump’s ideological allies in Europe are distancing themselves, it’s because American unpredictability now affects the entire political spectrum of the continent. For Ukraine, this development offers a cautious glimmer of hope: the more European capitals realize they cannot rely on Trump, the more reason they have to strengthen their own strategic autonomy and solidarity with one another. A Europe that stops waiting for American aid is a Europe that must take charge of its own defense—and thus, potentially, provide more consistent support to Kyiv.

Every time a European leader realizes that Trump cannot be counted on, Ukraine gains a point in its favor: that of a Europe forced to stand on its own, because the American umbrella leaks precisely when it rains the hardest.

But let us guard against any facile optimism. The fact that Meloni and Le Pen criticize Trump does not make them champions of the Ukrainian cause. Le Pen remains a figure whose past positions on Russia have raised immense reservations, and nothing in the sources consulted indicates a pro-Ukrainian conversion. Their distancing from Trump stems from national calculations, not a sudden alignment with Kyiv. We must clearly distinguish between the rejection of American unilateralism and genuine support for Ukraine; the two can coexist, but they are not one and the same. The Europe emerging from this rift remains divided, uncertain, and torn by conflicting currents. The only certainty is that the illusion of Trump as a reliable ally is well and truly dead, on the right as elsewhere.

The pebble that won’t come out of the boot

A controversial photo in Evian, a canceled ministerial visit, a pope defended against presidential arrogance, a war with Iran launched without consulting anyone: the incidents are piling up and tracing a clear path. Trump has become a real political problem for the leaders of Europe’s hard right, who once admired him. Meloni tells him to mind his own business. Le Pen is defending Italian national pride against him. Bardella accuses him of imperial ambitions. These are not the words of historical adversaries, but of former ideological allies. That is what makes this rift so revealing.

Trump hasn’t lost enemies in this affair; he’s lost admirers. And a leader who can no longer even hold on to his natural allies sends a signal that his opponents, for their part, have long since learned to read.

There remains the troubling question, and I’m deliberately leaving it open. If Trump can no longer retain the loyalty of those who share his worldview, what is his word worth to those who, like Ukraine, depend on his consistency to survive? In 2026, the European far right will learn what Kyiv has known since 2022: Trump’s loyalty is a currency that depreciates with every humiliation inflicted on those who hold it. The pebble in Meloni’s shoe will no longer come out so easily, because it was never an external stone, but the very nature of the man she had chosen to rely on. And that lesson, once learned, cannot be unlearned.

Signed, Jacques PJ Provost, columnist