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Ivan Potanin and the Banks: The Financial Network of the War

Ivan Potanin is no ordinary figure. He is the son of Vladimir Potanin, chairman of Norilsk Nickel, one of Russia’s wealthiest oligarchs and a close ally of the Kremlin. Norilsk Nickel is a major producer of nickel, palladium, and copper—materials that are strategic to the global military and electronics industries. The designation of Ivan Potanin was intended to increase the personal cost to those close to Putin’s regime. His removal from the list, without explanation, reduces that cost. And in the logic of sanctions, reducing the cost without demanding something in return weakens the leverage.

The executives of Novikombank, Sovcombank, and Bank Otkritie represent another dimension. These sanctioned banks play a role in financing Russia’s war economy—Novikombank, in particular, is known for its ties to the military-industrial complex. Removing their executives from the SDN list without verifiable reciprocity opens up potential loopholes: individuals who are once again authorized to interact with U.S. counterparties can facilitate transactions that the entities themselves cannot directly carry out. This may not be the intention. But it is the potential effect.

IDA Asansor and Oil Tankers: Facilitating Circumvention

The Turkish company IDA Asansor—an elevator manufacturer—had been sanctioned for circumventing sanctions and supplying goods to the Russian defense industry. For Washington to remove such a company from the SDN list—without announcing that it has ceased its problematic activities, and without any conditions or reciprocity—sends a signal to other Turkish, Indian, or Chinese companies seeking Russian markets: U.S. sanctions on third-party facilitators are reversible. They depend on the politics of the moment, not on transparent and permanent criteria. This message, if it is indeed received in corporate boardrooms in Istanbul, Mumbai, or Shenzhen, is disastrous for the effectiveness of the sanctions regime.

The two oil tankers removed from the list—the Vyacheslav Arshinov and the Gennady Egorov—were linked to the Russian State Transport Company. Their removal from the list facilitates their access to ports, insurance, and financial markets. In a context where Russia’s ghost fleet is already operating on a massive scale outside the scope of sanctions, adding two more vessels to the list of authorized entities does not radically change the situation—but it contributes to the impression that the sanctions regime is a flexible instrument rather than a rigid framework.


Removing IDA Asansor from the SDN list unconditionally sends a message to sanctions evaders around the world that the punishment is temporary. This is the opposite of a deterrent effect. And in a war that has lasted more than 1,500 days, missed deterrent effects are piling up.

This content was created with the help of AI.

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