INVESTIGATION: Kenya: The Crackdown Continues, and the Death Toll Has Exceeded 100 in One Year

Ruto Acknowledges “Extrajudicial Actions”

Under pressure, President William Ruto finally publicly admitted to “instances of excessive and extrajudicial actions by the security services”—a cautious formulation that implicitly acknowledges the state’s responsibility without directly naming those responsible or promising systematic sanctions against identified perpetrators.

This acknowledgment, however belated, marks a break from the Kenyan authorities’ initial denial; they had long downplayed the extent of police violence, portraying it as isolated incidents rather than a structural repressive policy.

Financial Compensation Falls Far Short of Calming Anger

The government announced the creation of a fund of 2 billion Kenyan shillings—approximately 15.5 million U.S. dollars—intended to compensate victims of police violence and their families. This financial gesture, however, has failed to convince either the bereaved families or human rights organizations, which are demanding, above all, legal proceedings against those responsible.

For many Kenyans, this compensation seems more like an attempt to buy social peace than a genuine form of restorative justice, in a country where, according to several local organizations, police impunity remains the norm rather than the exception.

A compensation check will never replace a fair trial: this strategy by the Kenyan government—paying rather than prosecuting—strikes me as an implicit admission that the country’s institutional justice system remains incapable of holding its own security forces accountable.

A Tax Burden Deemed Unbearable by Young People

At the heart of the initial protests in 2024 was a budget bill proposing tax increases on basic necessities—a measure perceived by Kenya’s youth, already grappling with massive unemployment, as yet another betrayal by a government more concerned with repaying its international debt than with protecting its own people.

The subsequent withdrawal of this bill was not enough to quell the anger, as the structural causes remain: Kenya’s abysmal public debt, austerity programs negotiated with the International Monetary Fund, and corruption perceived as systemic within state institutions.

A Connected Generation Rejecting the Old Political Model

This movement is distinguished by its largely horizontal and decentralized nature, driven by a hyperconnected Kenyan Generation Z that has successfully transformed social media into a tool for political organization, partly evading the traditional control of established opposition parties.

This organizational autonomy both worries and fascinates regional political observers, who see it as a harbinger for other African countries facing similar demographic and economic dynamics.

I see in this hyperconnected Kenyan youth a distant but real echo of the Arab Spring: a generation that no longer needs traditional parties to organize itself, and that reminds all authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes that control of the streets is no longer limited to control of the official media.

Allegations of Disproportionate Use of Force

Several Kenyan and international human rights organizations have documented the disproportionate use of tear gas, live ammunition, and, in some cases, enforced disappearances targeting activists identified as protest leaders—a practice reminiscent of the darkest days of political repression on the African continent.

President Ruto has also publicly warned against any attempt to “overthrow” his government through street protests, a statement that some analysts have interpreted as a preemptive justification for an even tougher security crackdown in the coming months.

Deep Mistrust of Judicial Institutions

The slow pace—or even the complete absence—of legal proceedings against police officers involved in fatal shootings is fueling growing distrust of the Kenyan judicial system, which is perceived as structurally incapable or reluctant to hold its own law enforcement forces accountable, even in the face of video evidence widely circulated on social media.

This perceived impunity fuels a vicious cycle: the longer the victims’ families wait for justice that never comes, the more public anger builds, which in turn fuels new waves of protests and, potentially, further police violence.

Without credible legal proceedings against those identified as responsible for these fatal shootings, I frankly see no reason why this spiral of violence would stop on its own: impunity never extinguishes anger; it merely puts it on temporary hold.

A Test for East Africa’s Stability

Kenya remains one of East Africa’s economic and diplomatic pillars, a country considered relatively stable compared to some of its regional neighbors. Prolonged destabilization of its political system could have repercussions far beyond its borders, particularly on regional trade flows and security cooperation with Western countries.

The country remains an important strategic partner for the United States and several European nations in the fight against regional terrorism, particularly in the face of the persistent threat posed by the Islamist group Al-Shabaab, based in neighboring Somalia.

A Western Silence That Raises Questions

Despite the scale of the human toll, the Western diplomatic response remains low-key, bearing no resemblance to the mobilization seen in response to other international crises. This relative discretion fuels, among many Kenyans, a sense of abandonment and a conviction that their struggle for democracy carries less weight in the eyes of the world than other geopolitical crises deemed higher priorities.

Yet a stable and truly democratic Kenya directly serves Western strategic interests in a region where China is ramping up its investments and where authoritarian powers are seeking to expand their influence through economic and security partnerships.

I believe the West is making a strategic mistake by relatively neglecting this crisis in Kenya: while we look the other way, other powers less concerned with human rights will not hesitate to fill the diplomatic vacuum left by our relative indifference.

A Test of Resilience for Kenyan Institutions

Kenya is often portrayed as one of East Africa’s most functional democracies, with regular elections and a relatively active civil society. This protracted crisis, however, is putting that reputation to the test, revealing deep flaws in a system where peaceful popular protest is systematically met with a disproportionate security response.

The country’s ability to weather this period without sliding into more overt authoritarianism—or, conversely, into widespread chaos—will be decisive for the future of its democratic governance and for the credibility of its institutions in the eyes of its own people.

A Precedent for Other African Protest Movements

The resilience of the Kenyan protest movement, despite two years of continuous repression, could inspire similar movements elsewhere on the African continent, where comparable economic and demographic dynamics create fertile ground for structural popular uprisings against governments perceived as out of touch with the daily realities of their citizens.

This Kenyan precedent also illustrates the limits of a purely repressive response to a protest movement led by a generation that is no longer afraid to directly challenge the established authority, whatever the human cost.

This resilience of the Kenyan people, despite a horrific human toll, reminds me that repression alone has never succeeded, in the long term, in stifling a legitimate demand for democracy: history is replete with examples where police brutality has ultimately accelerated rather than slowed political change.

Lenders Caught Between Principles and Interests

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, Kenya’s main creditors, find themselves in a delicate position: they demanded the fiscal reforms that sparked the popular protests in the first place, yet today they are witnessing the dramatic human consequences of their own austerity policies recommended to Nairobi.

This contradiction has not escaped the attention of Kenyan protesters, who regularly denounce a dual responsibility: that of their own government, but also that of international financial institutions that continue to demand painful fiscal adjustments without always fully assessing their actual social and political costs.

Cautious but Not Entirely Absent Western Diplomacy

Some Western embassies in Nairobi have issued statements calling for calm and respect for human rights, without, however, going so far as to impose targeted sanctions against those identified as responsible for the crackdown—a diplomatic restraint that reflects Kenya’s strategic importance as a regional security partner.

This calculated caution illustrates a classic dilemma of Western diplomacy: how to defend human rights without undermining an ally deemed indispensable in the fight against regional terrorism and the growing influence of rival powers in East Africa.

I understand the West’s diplomatic caution toward an important security ally, but I refuse to see it as a sufficient excuse: the defense of human rights should never be a bargaining chip in the service of geopolitical interests, no matter how legitimate they may be.

A Precarious Balance Between Repression and Dialogue

Two years after the protests began, Kenya remains caught between two possible outcomes: continued repression that risks fueling the cycle of violence indefinitely, or the launch of a genuine national dialogue capable of addressing the structural causes of public anger, from public debt to police impunity.

President William Ruto appears, for the time being, to favor a hybrid combination of the two approaches, blending rhetorical acknowledgment of abuses with the maintenance of a firm security response—a strategy that has so far neither convinced nor appeased the Kenyan public.

An Issue for the West to Monitor Closely

For Western observers, the situation in Kenya warrants increased attention, not only for obvious humanitarian reasons, but also because the stability of this strategic partner in East Africa directly determines the effectiveness of regional security cooperation in the face of terrorist threats and the growing influence of rival authoritarian powers.

The toll of more than 100 deaths in two years should not remain a mere distant statistic, but a constant reminder that democracy, even in its most imperfect forms, is sometimes paid for with the blood of citizens who, at the outset, asked only for greater tax justice.

As I close this report on Kenya, what stands out most to me is the dignity of a people who continue to take to the streets despite the legitimate fear of never returning home: it is this collective courage, more than any economic statistic, that deserves our attention in the West.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist