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COLUMN: How Many Missiles Are Left?
Maxime Marquette

Primary Sources:

Critical Threats Project (American Enterprise Institute) and Institute for the Study of War, campaign assessment: threefold increase in ballistic missile launches from April to July, production plan exceeded by 10 to 20 percent, maximum simultaneous salvo of 77 missiles, Air Force report for the night of August 9–10, August 10, 2026

Center for Strategic and International Studies, Ian Williams, analysis: why the March 2022 depletion forecasts failed, postwar production, sixty cruise missiles, five Iskanders, and two Kinzhals per month according to Ukrainian intelligence, June 28, 2023

Russia Matters (Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School), Simon Saradzhyan, compilation of statements regarding the Russian missile shortage from March through December 2022, Ukrainian Ministry of Defense inventory as of November 22, forecast of three to five waves, December 15, 2022

Ukraine War Analytics, Russian production capabilities in 2026, monthly production rates by missile family, a three- to four-fold discrepancy compared to predictions at the start of the war, February 24, 2026

Secondary Sources:

Kyiv Independent, Dmytro Shumlianskyi (Militarnyi): 1,858 missiles fired from January 1 to August 27, 2026; breakdown by type and month; estimated stockpiles of Kh-101, Zircon, Kalibr, and tactical missiles, September 3, 2026

Euromaidan Press, interview with Vadym Skibitskyi (Ukrainian military intelligence) on RBC-Ukraine: factories operating at 110–120% of plan, Iskander-M stockpile estimated at 130 units as of August 5, increase in ballistic missile launches from April to July, August 10, 2026

Kyiv Post, Ukrainian military intelligence: up to 100 ballistic missiles per month without depleting reserves; annual production target of approximately 700 9M723 missiles; estimate of 120 per month cited by Volodymyr Zelensky, June 4, 2026

Kyiv Post, according to Militarnyi: 107 ballistic missiles fired from July 1 to 19, 2026—more than one month’s estimated production—20 Zircon missiles over the same period, July 20, 2026

Euromaidan Press, Olena Mukhina: Kh-101 that struck the Darnytskyi district was manufactured in the second quarter of 2026; at least 12 dead and 57 wounded; an air raid alert lasting approximately eleven hours; recall from Ternopil, May 14, 2026

ABC News, massive strike on Kyiv on August 20, 2026: at least 15 dead and more than 40 injured; 46 missiles and 168 drones launched; 41 missiles and 145 drones shot down; 28 sites hit, August 20, 2026

Kyiv Independent, August 27, 2026, attack on Kyiv and several regions: seven Iskander-M or KN-23 ballistic missiles shot down, one Onyx, three Banderol, 222 drones deployed, August 27, 2026

Geopolitical Monitor, Simone Chiusa: Monthly replenishment estimated at 120–150% of consumption; approximately 2,900 missiles produced annually by mid-2025; increase in Russian military spending since 2021, June 5, 2026

This content was created with the help of AI.

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