Skip to content
International Policy News Politics

COLUMN: The Danube is receding, drones are taking off, and Ukrainian grain is looking for a way out
Maxime Marquette

Primary Sources:

Lower Danube River Administration (AFDJ Galați), water level readings as of September 3, 2026: Sulina 52 cm, Tulcea 15 cm, Isaccea 15 cm, Galați 14 cm, Brăila -10 cm, Hârșova -137 cm, Cernavodă -240 cm, Călărași -182 cm, minimum navigable depths and two-day forecasts, September 3, 2026

Lower Danube River Administration (AFDJ Galați), list of critical navigation points with recorded minimum depths and widths: Turcescu 149 cm, Caragheorghe 149 cm, Cernavodă 238 cm, Hârșova 278 cm, Salcia 213 cm, Bogdan Secian 192 cm, recorded in 2026

Danube Commission, public statement by representatives of member states on the increasing frequency of extreme water levels: draft restrictions, reduced cargo loads, longer transit times, pressure on alternative infrastructure, August 12, 2026

Danube Commission, official portal: 105th session in Budapest under the Bulgarian presidency on June 17, 2026; European recognition of Serbian inland navigation certificates; Decision 2026/1179 of July 1, 2026

Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA), official news feed: dredging work begins at the Port of Izmail on June 24, 2026; coordination with Romania’s AFDJ regarding passage through the Sulina Canal on August 26, 2026; 8.2 million metric tons handled in April 2026 (+35.8% year-over-year)

Secondary Sources:

Euromaidan Press: Russian strikes in the Black Sea and the Danube’s limited capacity are pushing the European Union to seek alternative routes—comments by Christophe Hansen to Bloomberg on September 2, 2026; more than 100 drones detected by Romania during seven attacks in mid-August; three strikes on Izmail in August, including the one on August 29 (one fatality, five grain trucks destroyed), the Ukraine-Moldova-Constanța rail corridor estimated to account for about 10% of grain exports, Moldovan transit fees halved through December 31; the Bloomberg Agricultural Commodities Index rose by more than 13% in August, September 3, 2026

Ukrinform, statement by Deputy Foreign Minister Mariana Betsa before the United Nations General Assembly: more than 1,050 port facilities damaged, more than 240 civilian ships attacked, more than 50 ships during the summer of 2026, nearly 30 deaths, approximately 90% of grain and oilseed shipments via the Black Sea, more than 2 million metric tons seized in 2025 worth approximately $400 million, September 1, 2026

Ukrinform, early grain harvest according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food: 31.73 million metric tons harvested from 6.76 million hectares (58% of the area), wheat 24.61 Mt, barley 6.32 Mt, peas 786,900 t, millet 7,840 t, Odessa 4.82 Mt, Dnipropetrovsk 2.63 Mt, Kirovohrad 2.42 Mt, rapeseed 3.79 Mt on 99% of the projected area, August 26, 2026

Ukrinform, global wheat prices rose on August 26, 2026, according to the Electronic Grain Exchange: Chicago SRW September +6.6% to $268.4/metric ton, Kansas City HRW +5% to $291/metric ton, Minneapolis HRS +4% to $265.3/metric ton, Paris +3.7% to €236/metric ton, annual increases ranging from 12% to 36.6%, December corn +2.5%, November soybeans +2.3%, August 28, 2026

Ukrinform, meeting between Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Carl Skau, acting executive director of the World Food Program: wheat near three-year highs, potential increase of about $80 per metric ton, equivalent to $16 billion for consumers, August 20, 2026

UkrAgroConsult, substitution of Black Sea wheat with Australian and Argentine wheat: at least 500,000 metric tons reserved in seven to ten days, Australian wheat at $315–330/metric ton C&F, Argentine wheat at $310–315/metric ton, compared to $260–280/metric ton for Black Sea wheat; 2 to 2.5 million metric tons reserved by Asian millers for July–September, representing 30% to 50% of their needs; Chicago futures up by approximately 35% since late June, September 3, 2026

This content was created with the help of AI.

facebook icon twitter icon linkedin icon
Copied!

Comments

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
0 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
More Content