FACT-CHECK: Trump Blames High Diesel Prices on the Strikes on Kyiv, and His Energy Secretary Reports Three Casualties

Wednesday, in the Oval Office

“If that hadn’t happened, we wouldn’t have a diesel problem.”

Donald Trump was referring to the Russian refineries being targeted by Ukrainian drones. It was September 30. The press was interviewing him in the Oval Office.

Preliminary verdict: exaggerated.

There is a cause. Trump makes it the only one. His own Secretary of Energy cited two others.

Two days earlier, the EIA reported a rise in the price of diesel. The national average reached $6.382 per gallon. The agency uses the cash price paid by the driver at the pump.

The drop, reported the day before

The EIA describes its method on its website. Every Monday at 8 a.m., it records the price of diesel. The time is local. It surveys truck stops and gas stations. It publishes the data on Tuesday.

On September 21, the agency recorded a price of $6.529. By Monday, September 28, the price per gallon had fallen by 14.7 cents. The drop affected nearly the entire country. Only prices in the Rockies rose.

Year-over-year, diesel remained $2.628 more expensive.

The agency published these figures on Tuesday, September 29. Trump spoke the next day.

Chris Wright, in fact, pointed this out to the press. “You saw diesel prices drop last week.”

The figure was public.

The exact words from Wednesday

The Kyiv Post published Trump’s exact words.

Diesel is “really much more affected,” Trump said. “Not by the Middle East, but by what’s happening in Russia.”

He offered a reason. “These diesel refineries are being shut down at a rather alarming rate.”

Then he concluded. What happened in Russia with Ukraine was, in his view, “really the biggest problem for diesel.”

This is nothing new. Back in mid-September, he was already asking Zelensky to stop targeting Russian diesel, the Kyiv Post notes.

Trump doesn’t provide any figures. Ukrainian strikes are indeed removing Russian diesel from the market. But they alone do not explain the U.S. price.

A real cause, presented as the sole cause.

The Russian share exists

Ten percent of diesel delivered by sea

The Russian share is real. According to Bloomberg, as reported by Rigzone, Russia supplied about 10% of the world’s diesel delivered by sea. This figure predates the restrictions and the intensification of the strikes.

The Irish Examiner notes that Russia was traditionally the world’s second-largest exporter of diesel.

In July, Bloomberg reports, Russian refining fell to its lowest level in years due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Moscow then banned its producers from exporting diesel.

According to the Ukrainian database DeepStrike UA, cited by the Kyiv Post, drones struck 21 Russian refineries in August. This is a war record. Bloomberg quantified the impact on August 28. Russian fuel production reportedly fell by more than 30%.

Russia’s share also has an advocate in the Oval Office. Chris Wright included Russia among the sources of diesel shortages, notes CNBC.

The withdrawal of Russian diesel has exacerbated the effects of the Hormuz disruption, writes Bloomberg, and driven up truck fuel prices everywhere. Russia’s share is therefore also weighing on U.S. fuel prices.

Next to the office, another list

The Treasury, then Energy

The Kyiv Post quotes Scott Bessent from early September. The Treasury Secretary blamed Ukrainian drones for a global “energy shock.” He accused Kyiv.

On Wednesday, another secretary stood next to Trump, near the Resolute Desk. Chris Wright heads the Department of Energy. His list is longer.

“We’ve lost some of our diesel exports from the Middle East,” he said, “even if we restore them.” “We’ve lost diesel exports from China.” “That’s a lot of disruptions.”

According to CNBC, he also assured that U.S. refiners were operating at record levels. Europe is set to announce new volumes, he promised.

His list includes the Middle East and China. Trump’s list stops at Russia.

A starting point, in late February

From $28 to $82 per barrel

Bloomberg tracks the diesel premium over crude. Rigzone reported its data on September 30. At that time, it was hovering around $82 per barrel in Europe.

In late February, it was worth about $28. It has nearly tripled. That was before Washington and Israel launched the war against Iran. That was before Kyiv’s intensified campaign against Russian refineries.

CNBC attributes the chokepoint at Hormuz to the attack on Iran. This week, daily crude exports through the strait have returned to their pre-war levels.

Both events occurred after the end of February. This discrepancy alone would not be enough to distinguish between them.

The Strait of Hormuz in Every Gallon

During the same session, Trump welcomed the resumption of crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, CNBC reports.

“We’re in a very good position,” he said. Oil prices, he said, will begin to fall.

Hormuz is therefore weighing on crude oil, according to his own statements. As for diesel, he dismisses its impact.

But diesel is made from crude oil. According to the EIA, crude oil—which Trump expects to fall in price thanks to the Strait of Hormuz—accounted for 42% of the price of diesel in May. A gallon cost $5.60 at the time. No other component had as much of an impact.

We cannot praise the Strait of Hormuz for its impact on crude oil and dismiss it for its impact on diesel.

Russian diesel banned twice

On imports, since 2022

Joe Biden signed Executive Order 14066 on March 8, 2022. It prohibits the importation of Russian petroleum products into the United States: crude oil, fuels, and products derived from their distillation.

Trump himself reiterated this ban in an executive order dated February 6, 2026. The ban remains in effect. Russian diesel cannot legally be sold at U.S. gas stations.

According to CNBC, Trump is still considering banning U.S. diesel exports. Gas prices would go up “a little,” he said. Diesel prices would go down “a little.” U.S. prices would therefore also depend on what the U.S. exports.

Exports suspended through October 31

The Russian government took action the very same day Trump made his remarks, reports Rigzone. It extended its ban on diesel exports. Russian diesel from producers remains banned from export until October 31.

Moscow cites its domestic market and crop yields as reasons.

CNBC, Reuters, and the Kyiv Post report no comments from Trump regarding this decree.

Moscow is keeping its diesel while Washington accuses Kyiv.

The next day, in Samara

An unnamed oil facility

On October 1, Volodymyr Zelensky announced new long-range strikes. “Sanctions,” he wrote, also targeted an oil facility in the Samara region.

The site remains unnamed. No damage figures were reported. The Kyiv Post was unable to independently verify these claims.

Neither Zelensky nor the Kyiv Post mentioned a refinery.

Zelensky also cited a target in the Black Sea and a supply depot in the Bryansk region. Added to this is a drone site in the Orel region. Moscow had not confirmed all of these strikes, the newspaper adds.

His message refers to “appropriate responses” to the Russian war. He mentions neither Washington nor diesel fuel. Zelensky promises to continue.

As long as Moscow strikes

That same morning, according to Zelensky, a Russian drone struck a school in Kyiv, without causing any injuries.

The day before, Zelensky reported seven deaths, including a child, and 24 injuries from Russian drones and missiles. That was the day Trump made his remarks.

Mykola Bielieskov is a military analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, a Ukrainian public agency. The Irish Examiner reports that he considers it unlikely that Kyiv will spare Russian oil as long as Moscow strikes every day.

“We must deprive Russia of revenue,” he said.

In Russia, an increasing number of regions are once again rationing gasoline and diesel, notes The Moscow Times.

Part of the story, not the whole story

Verdict: Exaggerated.

True, because Kyiv’s drones are depriving the market of Russian diesel. Exaggerated, because Chris Wright himself cites the Middle East and China. Exaggerated, because crude oil—linked to Hormuz—also plays a role in every gallon.

Trump sets a condition: without the strikes, there would be no diesel problem. Neither the EIA, nor Bloomberg, nor his Secretary of Energy backs this up. It remains unsubstantiated.

Monday’s report offers no clear answer. The EIA’s investigation looks for a price, never a cause.

A real cause, singled out as the sole culprit.

Next Monday, 8 a.m.

Who in Washington will publish the Russian share of the diesel price?

The next report is scheduled for Monday, October 5. It will be published on October 6.

An official figure would change the verdict. It would quantify the share of each loss in that price. One man has already identified these three losses.

Chris Wright.

The strikes on Kyiv account for only part of the $6.382 diesel price.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

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FACT-CHECK: Trump Blames High Diesel Prices on the Strikes on Kyiv, and His Energy Secretary Reports Three Casualties