ANALYSIS: Trump Launches the Naval Battle of Hormuz — and the World Holds Its Breath at 21 Million Barrels a Day

A U.S. Navy Already Stretched to the Limit

The U.S. Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, officially consists of about 30 ships. But it is simultaneously responsible for the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and now the Strait of Hormuz. Since November 2023, the Houthis have carried out more than 100 attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. U.S. destroyers have been firing nonstop for the past 18 months.

Announcing an escort mission is easy. Carrying it out is another story. Each U.S. destroyer costs about $700,000 per day to operate. And yet, Trump is touting it as a public relations stunt, not as a strategy. Will reality follow suit?

The trap Tehran has been setting for forty years

Iran has been dreaming of this confrontation since 1988, since the “Tanker War” that pitted Washington against Tehran during the Reagan administration. Provoking an American incident in the Strait of Hormuz, filming the destroyer as it fires, showing blood on the deck of a Saudi oil tanker—that is the scenario that would rally the regime internally, which has been weakened by the 2022 protests and the collapse of the rial.

Does Trump know this? Or is he walking straight into the trap, because a president who needs an external enemy will always find one?

I watch the statements come one after another and think of 2003. Of Iraq. Of those very same words—“escort,” “secure,” “retaliate.” Twenty years later, we’re still counting the coffins. The memory of war is short in the United States. It is long in the families who have buried their sons.

Filipinos, Indians, Ukrainians: The Oil Industry’s Workforce

On the oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the average age of the crews is 34. Eighty percent are from the Philippines, India, and Ukraine, according to statistics from the International Maritime Organization. They earn between $2,000 and $4,000 a month, send the money to their families, and sleep in nine-square-meter cabins.

When an Iranian Revolutionary Guard climbs onto their bridge with a Kalashnikov, they aren’t thinking about geopolitics. They’re thinking about their six-year-old daughter in Manila, their sick mother in Cebu, the last time they saw her—in a photo, on a video call—never long enough.

When Boarding Becomes Routine

Reza Mansouri, a 41-year-old Indian captain, was detained on the St. Nikolas in January 2024 for four months. His wife in Mumbai received no news for 19 days. He lost 11 kilos. He returned home in June. He set sail again in August. He has no choice: his son is starting college.

This is the war in the Strait of Hormuz. Not military maps. Men boarding ships because they don’t have the luxury of refusing.

People talk about “tensions.” The word is a numbing agent. Tension is a muscle contracting. What’s happening in Ormuz is a 41-year-old man sleeping on deck with a Kalashnikov pressed to his temple while his wife stares at her dead phone. Let’s stop talking about tensions. Let’s talk about what’s really happening.

The Illusion of Energy Independence

Europe thought it was protected. The Green Deal, wind turbines in the North Sea, solar power in Andalusia. And yet, in 2025, the European Union still imports 87% of its crude oil. When Hormuz sneezes, Brussels catches a cold.

Germany, which shut down its nuclear power plants under Merkel in 2011, depends on imported gas and oil for more than 70%of its energy needs. France, better protected by its nuclear fleet, remains vulnerable when it comes to transportation: 92% of its road fuel comes from abroad. No one is self-sufficient. No one ever really has been.

Deindustrialization as a Time Bomb

When energy prices skyrocket, factories close. BASF has already shut down its ammonia production lines in Ludwigshafen in 2023, following the gas crisis. If the price per barrel exceeds $150, European factories will follow suit—in the chemical, steel, cement, and paper industries. Three million industrial jobs are on the line, according to Eurofer estimates.

And yet, European ministers are still talking about “monitoring the situation.” Monitoring. The word has become a cover-up.

Monitoring the situation. That phrase makes me sick. While we’re monitoring, the worker in Ludwigshafen is losing his job. While we’re monitoring, the baker in Vesoul is closing his shop. While we’re monitoring, the Filipino sailor remains a hostage. “Monitoring” is the verb of cowards who want to appear to be taking action without actually doing anything.

Beijing, Tehran’s Largest Customer, Stands to Lose the Most from a Closure of the Strait of Hormuz

China imports 90% of Iran’s oil. It is also the world’s largest importer of crude oil, and 50% of its imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. If the strait closes, the Chinese economy would grind to a halt within three weeks.

Xi Jinping cannot let that happen. But neither can he openly align himself with Washington. The result? Behind-the-scenes diplomacy, discreet phone calls to Tehran, and secret mediation efforts via Oman. China isn’t taking any chances. It’s calculating its next move.

The Tehran-Moscow-Beijing Axis and Western Fragility

Since 2023, the Tehran-Moscow-Beijing axis has solidified. Iranian drones in Ukraine, Russian oil via the “ghost fleet,” discreet Chinese financing. Three capitals, one strategy: to wear down the West through economic attrition. Hormuz is a new front in this slow-burning war.

And yet, in Brussels, there is still talk of “strategic partnerships” with Beijing. Naivety comes at a cost. It’s called dependence.

Three capitals are working against us. Not by chance. Not by circumstance. By strategy. And we keep buying their solar panels, their electric cars, their subsidized steel. We’re financing our own strangulation. The word for that isn’t “trade.” It’s suicide on credit.

18 Months of Unnoticed Attacks in the Red Sea

Before Hormuz, there was Bab el-Mandeb. Since November 2023, Yemen’s Houthis—armed and trained by Iran—have attacked more than 100 ships in the Red Sea. Traffic through the Suez Canal has plummeted by 67%. Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM have rerouted their fleets via the Cape of Good Hope—adding 10 days to transit times and resulting in billions of dollars in losses.

The U.S.-British strikes in January 2024 did nothing to stop them. The Houthis are still firing. Asymmetric warfare has prevailed. And no one in Washington or London dares to acknowledge it publicly.

Will the Strait of Hormuz follow the same path?

Iran is watching. It is learning. It is copying what works. If the Houthis held out for 18 months against the Western coalition in a less strategic area, Iran can hold out for five years at the Strait of Hormuz, where it has strategic depth, short-range missiles, and fast patrol boats.

And yet, Trump is announcing an escort. As if an escort had ever stopped a Noor surface-to-sea missile—of which Iran possesses hundreds.

I reread the press releases. They always use the same words. “Firm response.” “Determination.” “Coalition.” And yet the ships are burning. Sailors are dying. Oil prices are rising. Official statements have become incantations that no longer bring rain. The sky remains dry. The war continues.

Tel Aviv and the Temptation of a Preemptive Strike

Since the 2024 war with Hezbollah, Israel has demonstrated its ability to strike Iran directly. On October 26, 2024, Israeli aircraft destroyed Iranian air defense sites. Tehran did not retaliate immediately. But it has not forgotten.

If Benjamin Netanyahu strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities—a scenario discussed since 2012 that became plausible in 2025—Tehran will close the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Not as a threat. As retaliation. And at that point, the U.S. escort will become a target, not a shield.

When Proxy War Becomes Direct War

For 40 years, Israel and Iran have clashed through proxies—Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias. Since 2024, the confrontation has been direct. Iranian ballistic missiles struck Tel Aviv in April 2024. Israeli strikes hit Isfahan in October 2024. The spiral of escalation has begun.

The Strait of Hormuz is the next stage. And no one has a credible plan to prevent it.

I’d like to believe in diplomacy. I really would. But when I look back at 20th-century history, I always see the same pattern: we talk, and talk, and talk, and then one day someone fires a shot. What we call a “crisis” is often the final act of a play that was written long ago.

The Baker from Vesoul and the Price of Iranian Oil

Patrick Lemaire has run a bakery in Vesoul, in Haute-Saône, for 23 years. His electricity bill tripled in 2022. If the price per barrel exceeds $150, his bill will quadruple. He’s already done the math: he’ll have to close. He’s 58 years old. He won’t be able to switch careers.

Multiply Patrick by 33,000 bakeries in France. Multiply by the hairdressers, dry cleaners, restaurant owners, and artisans. The Strait of Hormuz isn’t a foreign policy issue. It’s a matter of economic survival for hundreds of thousands of small business owners who keep the country running.

The Invisible Inflation Eroding Pensions

A sustained rise in oil prices to $130 per barrel would trigger an additional 1.8 percentage points of inflation in the eurozone, according to calculations by the European Central Bank. For a retiree receiving 1,400 euros, that’s 302 euros lost per year. Not just in theory. It’s groceries that no longer fit in the shopping cart.

And yet, on the news channels, they talk about “market volatility.” Market volatility is Patrick’s baguette going from €1.30 to €1.80.

When I called him, Patrick told me, “If I close down, it’s not just me. It’s my two apprentices. It’s Mrs. Rousset, who comes every morning at 7 a.m. for her rye bread. It’s the village dying a little more.” That’s what no one in Washington is taking into account. Geopolitics kills through silent ripple effects.

Strategic Reserves and Forgotten Plan Bs

The European Union has strategic oil reserves sufficient for 90 days, in accordance with the 1974 IEA agreements. But these reserves are designed to absorb a shock, not a prolonged crisis. If the Strait of Hormuz were to close for six months, stocks would be depleted in 120 days at most.

The alternative—oil from Canada, Brazil, and French Guiana—exists on paper. In reality, European terminals are not equipped to handle a massive shift in supply. It would take three to five years of port construction work. We don’t have that time.

A Historic Opportunity to Accelerate the Energy Transition

And yet, this crisis could force Europe to do what it has always put off: massively accelerate the expansion of nuclear and renewable energy. France announced six EPR2 reactors in 2022—none have broken ground. Poland has been signing contracts with Westinghouse since 2023—permits are dragging their feet. The urgency of the Strait of Hormuz could be the wake-up call.

Or not. Given Brussels’ sluggishness, we’ll bet on “not.”

History rarely offers the same opportunity twice. In 1973, the oil crisis pushed us toward nuclear power. We’ve since dismantled it. Today, history is knocking again. The question is no longer “will we listen?” It’s “will we still have the luxury of ignoring it?”

When War Becomes Background Noise

On news channels, Hormuz slips in between a weather report and a story about school vacations. The public’s attention has been shattered by a succession of crises: Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Lebanon, and now Iran. Each crisis dilutes the one before it. The human brain isn’t designed to process five apocalypses at once.

And yet, this is precisely what autocrats exploit. They know we no longer have the emotional bandwidth. They strike when we’re looking the other way. Ormuz is the ultimate test of our collective attention span.

We’ve all scrolled past it

How many of us scrolled past Trump’s announcement the way we scroll past a cake recipe? How many put down their phones thinking, “That doesn’t concern me”? And yet, it affects the price of Patrick’s bread, Anya’s salary in Manila, Germany’s industrial future, and France’s energy security.

We’ve all scrolled past it. That’s not an accusation. It’s an observation. And the next time gas prices skyrocket to 2.30 euros per liter, we’ll wonder how it happened. It happened while we were looking the other way.

I’m writing this article, and I know that half the readers will read the headline, close the tab, and move on. I don’t blame them. I’m just saying: Patrick, in Vesoul, won’t be able to close the tab. Anya, on her oil tanker, won’t be able to close the tab. The luxury of ignorance comes at a price. And it’s always the same people who pay it.

The bill they’re preparing without asking us

Trump launched the naval battle in the Strait of Hormuz with a press release. Iran is preparing its response. China is weighing its options. Israel is watching closely. Meanwhile, 21 million barrels a day are waiting to see if they’ll be able to pass through tomorrow. And behind those barrels lie tens of thousands of sailors, hundreds of millions of consumers, and millions of industrial jobs.

The bill is being prepared without us. But it will be presented to us. As always. Inflation, deindustrialization, recession—these are the three words that ministers don’t dare utter yet, but which are already part of the scenario.

Reza, Patrick, Anya, and the others

Reza Mansouri will set sail again next month. Patrick Lemaire will open his bakery tomorrow at 5:30 a.m. Anya Santos, 27, will cast off from the docks in the port of Khor Fakkan in two days. They don’t know if the American destroyers will be there. They don’t know if the Iranian missiles will be launched. They carry on.

And what do we—scrolling away from our couches—owe them? Not pity. Attention. Remembrance. The awareness that 33 kilometers out to sea, in a corridor of saltwater, a part of our lives is being played out without our having been consulted.

Trump has launched the naval battle of the Strait of Hormuz. The world is holding its breath. And Patrick, at 5:30 a.m., turns on his oven, hoping he’ll be able to turn it back on tomorrow.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist