COLUMN: The Strait of Hormuz Ablaze — Two Indian Cargo Ships Hit, the World Holds Its Breath

India has been buying Iranian oil on a massive scale for years. Iran is firing on Indian ships. It’s a cruel paradox.

The friend who strikes

Since the reinstatement of U.S. sanctions against Tehran, New Delhi has maintained discreet but substantial economic ties with Iran. India has refused to sever them completely. India has even defended, in certain international forums, Tehran’s right to a form of energy sovereignty. And now the IRGC is firing on ships flying the Indian flag, possibly carrying oil, possibly carrying ordinary cargo.

Narendra Modi Faces a Dilemma

The Indian prime minister finds himself facing an impossible choice. Protest strongly, and risk shifting permanently into the Western camp—which the Kremlin and Tehran view with suspicion. Or downplay the incident, and imply to Indian sailors that their lives are worth less than a geopolitical calculation. Neither option is comfortable. Neither is honorable. And yet, a choice must be made.

"He was dragged into this war by Bibi Netanyahu—let’s be clear about that."

The sentence that sums it all up

Kamala Harris delivered this statement to an audience, and she has just reshaped the American debate on the war in Iran. The former vice president, a defeated Democratic candidate in 2024, has nothing left to lose. And what she’s saying out loud, millions of Americans are thinking to themselves. Donald Trump didn’t choose this war. He was pushed into it. By an Israeli prime minister who, since 2023, has been pursuing a policy of reckless escalation, and who found in Washington an impulsive, vain, and easily influenced president.

Truth Social’s response: a veiled admission

Trump’s reaction was swift. An hour of frantic posts on Truth Social. A statement praising Israel, a “great, courageous, bold, loyal, and intelligent ally,” with this barely veiled dig: “unlike others who have shown their true colors in a moment of conflict and stress.” Who are these “others”? Pedro Sánchez’s Spain, which had been directly targeted the day before. Australia, publicly lambasted on Friday for “not being there when asked to be there.” And, implicitly, all the allies who refuse to follow Washington down this path.

When a president acts outside normal diplomatic channels, how are allies supposed to respond?

Richard Marles on David Speers’ Show

Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles was interviewed this morning on ABC by David Speers. The question was simple: Did Australia reject a U.S. request regarding the Strait of Hormuz? Marles’s response was a model of diplomatic caution: “There has been no specific request regarding any Australian capabilities.”

The wording is crucial. No specific request. This suggests that there may have been informal requests—verbal, via text message, or on Truth Social—that no one formally recorded or officially relayed. U.S. diplomatic channels are in such a state of disrepair that allies no longer even know what is being asked of them.

The Tactic of Strategic Silence

It’s worth recalling: during Trump’s first term, a well-known tactic among White House advisors was simply to not carry out the president’s requests, hoping he would forget. Some requests, indeed, were forgotten. Others were not. And today, entire foreign governments seem to have adopted this approach. History will record that major U.S. allies managed a global crisis by betting that the president would forget.

Wars are decided in Washington, fought in the Strait of Hormuz, and paid for at the gas pump in Cleveland.

Immediate Political Backlash

Kamala Harris cited a figure that will hurt the White House: an average of fifteen dollars more to fill up a tank. This figure is not a mere detail. It is a political weapon. In the United States, the price of gas is the daily barometer of presidential popularity. Every time an American pulls up to the pump, they cast a mental vote. An extra fifteen dollars is a slap in the face repeated every week, across the entire country, to every driver, without exception.

The domino effect on the global economy

And this is only the beginning. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for more than a few days, crude oil delivery contracts will be thrown into disarray. Marine insurance premiums will skyrocket. Alternative, longer routes will become overwhelmed. Asian countries, which depend heavily on the Gulf, will tap into their strategic reserves. And somewhere between the fifteenth and thirtieth day, a threshold will be crossed that no economist wants to name out loud.

“We’re not like America. We understand the pain caused by the closure of the strait.”

Cynicism speaks volumes

This statement, made by the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, is of a rare cruelty. It says: we know we are causing the world to suffer, but it is a conscious choice, pain we inflict with full awareness. “We are not like America”—that is to say, we do not pretend that our victims do not exist. It is almost a form of dark honesty. A claim to the suffering inflicted as a legitimate political tool.

The Historical Echo

This rhetoric is reminiscent of other regimes that have made inflicted pain an argument for sovereignty. Iran in 2026—economically cornered, militarily struck, and diplomatically isolated—uses its capacity to cause harm as its last bargaining chip. Closing the Strait of Hormuz is like holding a gun to the temple of the global economy. And Tehran has nothing left to lose by pulling the trigger.

Paris, Berlin, Rome, Madrid. No strong voice. No coordinated initiative. The silence is deafening.

Europe as a Spectator

Since the start of this crisis, Europe has been watching. It isn’t leading. It isn’t mediating. It isn’t protesting forcefully. It’s just watching. Pedro Sánchez, in Spain, deserves credit for publicly criticizing U.S. and Israeli actions, which earned him Trump’s wrath. But elsewhere, there’s a void. Emmanuel Macron, so quick to pontificate on European strategic autonomy, is nowhere to be found on this issue. Germany is managing a weakened coalition. Meloni’s Italy is silently aligning itself with Washington.

The Illusion of Strategic Autonomy

This crisis highlights a truth that European leaders have refused to face for twenty years. Europe carries no weight. Not in the Strait of Hormuz. Not in Ukraine. Not in Gaza. Not in Taiwan. It issues statements, organizes summits, and drafts resolutions. And meanwhile, Iranian patrol boats fire, Israeli drones strike, and cargo ships burn. European strategic autonomy is a fiction. This week has confirmed it once and for all.

Beijing is watching. Beijing is assessing. Beijing is biding its time.

A Silent Ally of Tehran

In 2021, China signed a 25-year strategic partnership with Iran. It imports massive amounts of Iranian oil, circumventing U.S. sanctions. And yet, Beijing has not spoken out forcefully on the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Why? Because every day of chaos in the Middle East is a day when the United States exhausts itself, disperses its forces, and burns through its global credibility. Every cargo ship hit in the strait is an indirect strategic gift to Xi Jinping.

Taiwan in the Back of Their Minds

And while Washington grapples with Tehran, while the Seventh Fleet monitors the Strait of Hormuz, the Chinese navy continues its exercises around Taiwan with increasing intensity. The calculation is crystal clear. The more America gets bogged down in the Gulf, the fewer resources it will have to defend Taipei when the time comes. Hormuz 2026 may be paving the way for Taiwan 2027. And few people in Washington seem to grasp this reality.

They don’t wear uniforms. They don’t fight. They transport goods. And they’re being killed.

An invisible workforce

The two Indian cargo ships that were hit carried mixed crews, like almost all commercial vessels around the world. Indian or European officers. Filipino, Bangladeshi, and Indonesian sailors. Burmese cooks. Ukrainian engineers. This invisible workforce keeps 90% of global trade running. It is the material foundation of our comfortable lives. And it dies in the most absolute media silence.

When a Name Is Missing from the Statistics

How many sailors were killed or injured on the Indian cargo ships struck this Saturday? We don’t know yet. Shipowners are tight-lipped. Governments are cautious. As for the families, they learn the news over the phone—in villages in Kerala or neighborhoods in Manila—without warning, without diplomatic support, without a national ceremony. A sailor killed in the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t make the headlines. It should. It never does.

Timing is never a coincidence. It always serves someone’s interests.

Iran’s Domestic Agenda

The Iranian regime is economically on its last legs. Inflation exceeds 50%. The rial is collapsing. The youth are in an uproar. In this context, an external crisis serves as a tool for national cohesion. Closing the Strait of Hormuz and firing on foreign ships serves to remind Iranians that they are at war, that the nation is under siege, and that this is no time to challenge the regime. The tactic is as old as time. It still works.

The U.S. and Israeli Agenda

On the Western side, the logic is the opposite but complementary. Every incident in the strait reinforces the argument that Iran is a threat that must be contained militarily. Every cargo ship hit justifies a naval buildup. Every image of flames on the water fuels the narrative of the threat. Tehran and Washington unwittingly share a common interest in escalation. And caught in the middle, sailors are dying.

All is not lost. But we must stop lying about what has been lost.

The Potential Role of Oman and Qatar

Historically, these two small Gulf states have served as discreet but effective mediators. Muscat and Doha can still speak with Tehran without going through Washington. The Australian Deputy Prime Minister stated this morning that “all diplomatic avenues” must be explored. That’s an empty phrase if it isn’t followed by action. But it’s the right thing to say.

What Still Depends on the Allies

France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—the original signatories to the 2015 Vienna nuclear agreement with Iran—have a role to play. Not the card of blind alignment with Washington. Not the card of complicit silence. The card of independent mediation. The one that tells Tehran: we condemn the attacks on civilians, and we are ready to discuss a serious ceasefire. That card exists. Someone just needs to play it.

A strait is more than just a geographical feature. It is a mirror.

The state of the world in four square kilometers

This past Saturday, the Strait of Hormuz laid bare the true state of the world. An Iranian regime speaking with two voices, one of which kills. An America led by a man who manages world affairs through vengeful posts on social media. A Europe that is absent, a mere spectator, and powerless. A patient China that is capitalizing on the situation. An India caught between its long-standing friendships and its vital interests. Anonymous sailors paying the ultimate price for calculations beyond their control.

The Next Cargo Ship

Somewhere in the Gulf, at this very moment, another cargo ship is heading toward the Strait of Hormuz. Its captain is hesitating. Its sailors are sleeping fitfully. Its insurers are recalculating. And somewhere in Tehran, in an air-conditioned office, an IRGC officer is deciding whether or not this cargo ship will be allowed to pass. He decides alone. Without consultation, without a vote, without public justification. That is what Hormuz will be like in 2026. A decision made by a single man, in secret, that will determine whether sailors on the other side of the world live or die. And we watch. Because we no longer know what else to do but watch.