COLUMN: The Strait of Hormuz Closes, Trump Reacts, and the World Holds Its Breath Over Oil

Let’s talk about the one who stands to lose the most—and whom no one mentions loudly enough.

Beijing imports 47% of its oil via the Strait of Hormuz

Nearly half of China’s crude oil passes through this strait. A prolonged closure would bring Guangdong’s entire manufacturing industry to a standstill. Xi Jinping cannot afford an oil crisis. He has spent twenty years securing his energy supply routes. And now his Iranian partner—whom he protects at the UN—is threatening his own lifeline.

The strategic irony

China buys 90% of Iran’s sanctioned oil exports. In other words: Tehran is turning off the tap that feeds its main customer. It’s like a tenant setting fire to his landlord’s building. Strategically absurd. Politically desperate.

A regime that closes the Strait of Hormuz is not a confident regime. It is a regime in a state of panic.

Iranian factions no longer speak with one voice

Since the death of Ebrahim Raisi, power in Iran has become fragmented. Supreme Leader Khamenei, 86, no longer controls everything. The Revolutionary Guards are pushing for an escalation. Diplomats in Tehran are trying to rein them in. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could be less a sovereign decision than an act of factional desperation.

The Iranian economy is in ruins

Inflation is at 42%. The rial has collapsed. Youth unemployment stands at 28%. Protests are resuming in Tehran, Isfahan, and Mashhad. And yet, instead of opening negotiations, the regime is choosing provocation. Why? Because an external crisis always diverts domestic anger. It’s the oldest trick in the authoritarian playbook.

Brussels watches, comments, and condemns. And does nothing.

Europeans depend on the Strait of Hormuz but have no fleet to defend it

France has a frigate stationed in the Gulf. Germany has nothing. Italy has a patrol boat. Europe imports but does not protect. It delegates its energy security to the U.S. Navy, then is surprised to find itself at the mercy of Trump’s whims.

The European paradox

Macron called for “de-escalation.” Von der Leyen issued a statement. Starmer convened his cabinet. Nothing concrete. Europe excels in the art of making statements. It fails in the art of exercising power.

When the Strait of Hormuz closes, Tel Aviv breathes a sigh of relief. And makes preparations.

Netanyahu is biding his time

A global oil crisis diverts attention from Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank. For Netanyahu, every day the world’s eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz is a day he can make his moves away from the cameras. Iran is unwittingly providing him with media coverage.

The scenario no one is talking about out loud

What if Israel were to take advantage of this crisis to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities? The pretext is being served up on a silver platter. The world would protest less loudly if Tel Aviv presented its strike as a response to global energy blackmail.

We always think we’re far away. We never are.

Is Alberta’s oil suddenly becoming strategic?

Canada exports massive amounts of crude oil to the United States. A crisis in the Strait of Hormuz drives up global prices. Alberta reaps the profits, Ottawa collects the royalties, and Montreal pays at the pump. The Canadian paradox in a single sentence.

Quebec, still dependent

The refineries in Lévis and Montréal-Est source most of their supply from international markets. A barrel at $120 means an extra 25 cents per liter at the pump. For a suburban family, that’s an extra $400 a year. For an independent trucker, it’s a guaranteed loss.

Wall Street opened lower. Tokyo closed amid panic. London followed suit.

Oil prices surged 14% in three hours

Brent rose from $82 to $94. WTI rose from $78 to $89. Traders are already talking about $130 if the crisis lasts more than two weeks. Airlines are reeling. Marine insurers are panicking.

The risk premium on tankers is skyrocketing

Insuring an oil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz cost 0.05% of its value last week. Today, it’s at 0.8%. That’s a 16-fold increase in five days. Shipowners are refusing to make the crossing. Queues are growing longer in Fujairah and Muscat.

Moscow smiles from behind its icy beard.

Putin is raising prices without lifting a finger

Every dollar added to the price per barrel is a dollar added to the Russian military budget. The war in Ukraine is being financed by the chaos in Iran. The Kremlin needs this crisis just as much as Tehran needs it to distract its population.

The Moscow-Tehran-Pyongyang axis is held together by adversity

Three isolated regimes, three economies under sanctions, three leaders playing the same tune: creating disorder to survive. Hormuz is just one chapter in a broader strategy.

What if it lasted? Not three days, not three weeks. Three months.

A global recession in the making

If oil prices stabilized at $140 a barrel for a quarter, that would wipe out 1.5% of global growth. Central banks, already caught between inflation and unemployment, would have no room to maneuver. Interest rates would rise. Mortgage defaults would skyrocket.

Weakened democracies

When purchasing power collapses, populism thrives. A prolonged Strait of Hormuz crisis could redraw the European electoral map in 2026. The AfD, RN, and Fratelli d’Italia are already rubbing their hands together.

Behind the public bravado, Washington is pulling the strings.

The Fifth Fleet is repositioning

Based in Bahrain, the U.S. Fifth Fleet has been ordered to deploy two additional aircraft carriers. Strategic B-52s are on alert at Diego Garcia. The military option isn’t on the table—it’s already in the air.

Strategic reserves will be released

The United States has 370 million barrels in strategic reserves. Trump, who criticized Biden for tapping into them, will now have to do exactly the same thing. Politics is the art of forgetting yesterday’s promises to save today’s economy.

The nations that condemn Iran today are the very same ones that funded its nuclear program in the past.

Forty Years of Western Double Dealing

France sold reactors to the Shah. Germany trained Iranian engineers. The United States armed Tehran against Iraq, then Iraq against Tehran. Every power that today condemns the mullahs’ regime was, at one time, its self-serving accomplice.

The short memory of foreign ministries

Iran did not just appear out of nowhere in 1979. It is the product of decades of interference, remote-controlled coups (Mossadegh, 1953), and cynical alliances. And yet, people feign surprise every time Tehran bites the hand that fed it.

Punishing Iran does not stop Iran from acting. It only pushes it to act more aggressively.

Twenty years of sanctions, zero regime change

Sanctions have impoverished the Iranian people. They have enriched the Pasdaran, who control the smuggling networks. They have radicalized the regime instead of softening it. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 is the logical outcome of twenty years of Western strategic failure.

The North Korean Model Replicated

Iran is following the same path as Pyongyang: isolation, clandestine nuclear development, and constant blackmail. And just as with North Korea, the West will eventually negotiate without admitting it.

And now, the mirror—the one we don’t like to look into.

Our addiction to oil holds us hostage

Thirty years after Kyoto, twenty years after the Paris Agreement, we’re still dependent on a strait on the other side of the world to fill our tanks. Every SUV sold in Quebec is a vote for the next crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.

The energy transition isn’t about the environment. It’s about geopolitics.

Moving away from oil isn’t primarily about saving the planet. It’s about saving our sovereignty. As long as our economies depend on the Strait of Hormuz, we’ll be held hostage by Tehran, Riyadh, and Moscow. Energy freedom comes before political freedom.

Three scenarios. Only one will ultimately prevail.

Scenario 1: Behind-the-scenes negotiations lead to de-escalation

Oman, Qatar, or Switzerland opens a discreet channel of communication. Tehran saves face by partially lifting the blockade. Washington trumpets a victory. Probability: 45%.

Scenario 2: The incident that sparks the conflict

A tanker is hit, a U.S. frigate is damaged, and war breaks out. Probability: 30%. And in this scenario, the price per barrel jumps to $180 within a week.

Scenario 3: The Long, Drawn-Out Stalemate

No war, no agreement. Just chronic tension that drains the global economy. Probability: 25%. The worst of the three, because it’s the most destructive over the long term.

You might think the Strait of Hormuz is far away. But your wallet knows better.

Your groceries will cost more in two weeks. So will your vacation flight. Your adjustable-rate mortgage will go up. Your pension fund will take a hit. A strait 10,000 kilometers away has just closed, and it’s your daily life that’s changing.

Trump refuses to give in to blackmail. Fine. But refusing to give in to blackmail isn’t enough to bring down gas prices. Refusing to give in to blackmail is a stance. Moving away from oil is a strategy. And between the two lies the chasm of our collective complacency.

Ormuz is not a crisis. It is a diagnosis.

A diagnosis of a world that has entrusted its survival to a saltwater pipeline guarded by ayatollahs. A diagnosis of an America that will play the sheriff as long as it stands to gain from it, and will turn its back when the wind changes. A diagnosis of a Europe that comments without acting, of a China that subsidizes its oppressors, of a Canada that pockets the profits of chaos without bearing the responsibilities.

We are not victims of Hormuz. We are guilty of Hormuz. Guilty of having allowed our energy, our economy, and our sovereignty to depend on a regime we’ve known to be dangerous for forty-seven years. Guilty of having preferred cheap oil to strategic independence. Guilty of continuing, even today, to fill up our tanks as if nothing were wrong.

Trump said no to blackmail. But have we said no to our own addiction? As long as the answer is no, the Strait of Hormuz will close again. And again. And again. Until the day it’s too late.

Signed, Jacques PJ Provost