COMMENT: Ukraine is advancing on the Donetsk front; Moscow is retreating and denying it

Maxime Marquette

2026-06-22 15:23:20

Documented Ukrainian counterattacks on several fronts

The June 18, 2026, report documents successful Ukrainian counterattacks on the Donetsk front. These advances are not merely symbolic; they are shifting the line of contact.

The ISW identifies specific sectors where Russian forces have been pushed back. These retreats, even if only partial, alter the defensive positions and morale of the units involved.

Moscow is losing its forward positions, one by one

The Russian forward positions captured at the cost of massive casualties in 2023–2024 are now being challenged. What Russia bought with lives, it is losing through retreats.

This is not a collapse. But it is a gradual deterioration which, as documented by the ISW, indicates a loss of operational initiative in several areas along the front.

The ISW is not a propaganda tool. It is an American research organization. When it says that Russia is retreating, that deserves to be taken seriously.

The June 11 report foreshadowed this trend

A Context of Logistical Deterioration That Was Already Underway

The ISW assessment dated June 11, 2026, had already documented the deterioration of Russian supply lines to Crimea. This pressure is directly linked to the front lines.

Units deprived of fuel, ammunition, or reinforcements do not fight as effectively. Logistics is the backbone of any operation.

Continuity Between Two ISW Assessments

Between June 11 and 18, 2026, Ukrainian pressure remained constant on both the logistics routes and the ground front. These two pressures are intensifying.

Russia, whose supply lines are under attack, is less able to sustain its offensive pressure. The link is mechanical and well-documented.

What stands out to me from June 11 to 18 is the consistency. Strikes, logistical disruption, and retreat on the front lines. Not a series of separate events. A system.

Logistics as the Key to the Russian Retreat

The Chonhar Bridge and Its Ripple Effect on the Front

The destruction of the Chonhar Bridge on June 9, 2026, directly affected the supply lines of the Russian 37th Brigade. Units with fewer supplies fight less effectively.

This link between destroyed logistical infrastructure and operational setbacks on the front lines is the hallmark of Ukraine’s June 2026 strategy: strike at logistics to clear the way.

The immobilized 37th Brigade: An Example of the Mechanism

The Russian 37th Brigade was awaiting fuel via Chonhar. The Ukrainian strike immobilized this unit. An immobilized brigade can neither advance nor retaliate.

A documented example illustrating how the destruction of infrastructure results in operational incapacity for the unit in question.

Striking a bridge to paralyze a brigade is pure strategy. Ukraine doesn’t fire at everything. It fires at what keeps the enemy moving.

What does “withdraw” mean for Russian forces?

Not a collapse—a measured deterioration

The Russian retreat documented by the ISW is not a rout. These are partial tactical withdrawals, adjustments in positions, and a loss of a few square kilometers.

But in the war of attrition in Donetsk, every kilometer gained by Ukraine represents months of fighting and considerable resources expended by Russia.

The symbolic value of lost positions

Some of the positions lost by Russia in June 2026 had been captured at the cost of thousands of lives. Regaining or losing them carries real psychological significance.

Russian soldiers who see their positions recaptured by the enemy suffer a moral blow. Propaganda may deny the retreat, but the soldiers on the ground experience it firsthand.

Losing what one has paid for so dearly is a double loss. First, the lives lost to conquer it. Then, seeing it retaken. Putin would prefer that his soldiers not make that calculation.

Ukraine Is Making Progress: What “Progress” Means in 2026

Modest but strategically significant gains

In 2026, “making progress” on the Donetsk front does not mean a spectacular breakthrough. It means recapturing forward positions, villages, and tactical high ground.

These gains have cumulative value. They strengthen Ukrainian defensive lines, shorten supply lines, and complicate the enemy’s supply lines.

Sustained pressure across multiple axes simultaneously

Ukraine is not pressing on a single axis. The ISW report from June 18 documents movements across several sectors of the Donetsk front simultaneously.

This multidirectional pressure prevents Russia from concentrating its reserves. It is defending a broad front with limited resources.

The Ukrainian strategy resembles a gradual squeeze—not a decisive blow, but constant pressure on multiple points. This is exhausting for the defense.

Critical Threats confirms the ISW's assessment

A Rare and Significant Analytical Convergence

The convergence between the ISW and Critical Threats reports dated June 18 and 19, 2026, is significant. These two organizations independently analyze the same data.

When two independent analytical centers reach the same conclusions, the likelihood of analytical error decreases. This is not propaganda.

What the international community takes away from these reports

These assessments inform allies’ decisions on arms deliveries. Documented progress strengthens Western support.

The analytical credibility of ISW and Critical Threats is recognized in Western capitals.

In the information war, two independent sources that agree are worth their weight in gold. Ukraine doesn’t need to convince anyone. The facts speak for themselves.

Moscow is backing down but won't admit it

Russian Propaganda: A Weapon of War That Backfires

Russia maintains that its operations are making progress. This psychological weapon targets its own troops just as much as it does international public opinion.

When the situation on the ground contradicts official statements, the credibility of Russia’s narrative crumbles. A credibility deficit is mounting.

The Cost of Strategic Deception on Troop Morale

Russian soldiers fighting in Donetsk are witnessing retreats, casualties, and abandoned positions. Propaganda does not convince them.

This disconnect between rhetoric and lived reality creates a breach of trust between the soldiers and their command. This is a real military factor.

Russian propaganda is designed for television viewers. Soldiers who see their comrades retreating know that the official statements are lies.

Dzhankoi, Chonhar, Donetsk: A Three-Pronged Strategy

Strike at logistics, weaken capabilities, gain ground

Ukraine’s June 2026 strategy unfolds in three phases: logistical strikes on Crimea, degradation of offensive capabilities, and then advances on the Donetsk front.

This is not a mere chronological coincidence. It is an operational sequence. Logistical pressure precedes and determines ground advances.

Ukrainian doctrinal coherence

This coherence is one of the major developments in the Ukrainian forces since 2022: combining deep strikes with frontal pressure.

Western allies who have provided strike capabilities are seeing their investments utilized with increasing doctrinal sophistication.

Three weeks of logistical strikes followed by an advance on the ground. This is no last stand. In 2026, Ukraine is waging a war of strategic planning.

Pressure on Russian reserves

Reserves Mobilized to Plug the Gaps

The Russian retreat documented on June 18, 2026, required the mobilization of tactical reserves to stabilize the front. These reserves are resources drawn from other sectors.

Every reserve deployed in Donetsk is one that is unavailable elsewhere. Russia is playing a game of patchwork.

The Gradual Depletion of Russia’s Offensive Capability

Since 2022, Russia has mobilized hundreds of thousands of additional soldiers. These mobilizations produce quantity, not the necessary quality.

Poorly trained, poorly equipped, and poorly supplied units cannot maintain sustained offensive pressure. The ISW has been documenting this deterioration for months.

Mobilizing hundreds of thousands of men is a resource that runs out. If misused, it runs out twice as fast. Russia has reached that point.

What Zelensky Says About the Ukrainian Advance

A statement that remains vague on tactical details

Zelensky reports on progress with calculated tactical restraint. He does not disclose precise positions or the number of troops deployed.

This restraint is a matter of operational discipline. Keeping the global public informed without alerting the enemy requires precise communication.

Zelensky, leader of a nation at total war

Zelensky remains the central figure of the Ukrainian resistance. His statements sustain international support and domestic morale.

In June 2026, his speeches reflect a measured confidence—not euphoria—and a determination rooted in the realities on the ground and ISW reports.

Zelensky knows the cost of every kilometer. He does not celebrate lightly. When he speaks of advances, independent analysts confirm them.

The Impact on Future Negotiations

Progress on the ground as diplomatic leverage

Every documented advance strengthens Ukraine’s negotiating position. The negotiating table reflects the situation on the ground.

A Ukraine that is advancing in June 2026 is negotiating with a Russia that is retreating. This imbalance alters diplomatic calculations.

The West is watching and drawing conclusions

Allied capitals are reviewing these reports. Concrete results make difficult political decisions easier.

Every positive ISW report serves as a political argument in allied debates. Wars are won in legislative assemblies.

Military victory and political victory are linked. Every kilometer gained in Donetsk is an argument for the next budget vote in Washington, Berlin, or Paris.

What this comment states quite plainly

Ukraine is not losing—and that in itself is a strategic victory

In June 2026, four years after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine is advancing on the Donetsk front and disrupting Russian logistics in Crimea. This is extraordinary resilience.

A nation that survives, learns, adapts, and regains ground—that is not a nation that is losing. It is a nation that chooses survival.

Moscow is losing the initiative without acknowledging it

Losing operational initiative on the Donetsk front is a documented strategic reality. Russia is reacting to Ukrainian movements rather than dictating them.

This reversal of the initiative—even if partial, even if temporary—means that Ukraine’s strategy of sustained pressure is having an effect. The ISW report of June 18, 2026, provides analytical evidence of this.

Four years ago, Russia was advancing on Kyiv. Today, it is retreating in the Donetsk region. This reversal is not complete. But it is documented.

Naval Drones and the Black Sea Front

Ukrainian pressure extends beyond the land front

The Ukrainian advance is not limited to the Donetsk front. Naval drones are operating in the Black Sea, striking Russian ships and limiting the Russian fleet.

This multidimensional pressure—on land, logistically, and at sea—is the hallmark of an integrated strategy. Ukraine is fighting on all fronts with the resources at its disposal.

The Black Sea as a Means of Exerting Pressure on Crimea

The Black Sea is no longer a secure area for Russia. Its maritime routes are under threat. Its fleet has suffered significant losses.

Combined with ground strikes on bridges and logistics hubs, maritime pressure is reinforcing Crimea’s gradual isolation.

Ukraine is fighting at sea, on land, and in the air—with fewer resources than its adversary. Making headway despite this imbalance—that is the very definition of determination.

Conclusion: a commentary that does not conclude that victory has been achieved, but rather points to a direction

The State of the Front as of June 18, 2026

As of June 18, 2026, the situation on the Donetsk front is favorable to Ukraine. This is not a victory. It is a documented trend that deserves to be acknowledged.

Pointing out this trend is not propaganda. It is the role of an honest commentator: to state what the data leads us to conclude.

The Columnist’s Take

Ukraine’s strategy in June 2026 is coherent. Logistical strikes, frontal pressure, and allied support are converging.

Moscow is retreating on the Donetsk front. Moscow denies this retreat. The ISW documents it. And I choose to trust independent analysts rather than Kremlin press releases.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist