COMMENT: China and Russia Conduct Naval Exercises Near Qingdao; Taiwan Watches

Unprecedented Surveillance

The senior Taiwanese security official who confirmed on July 6 that Taipei is closely monitoring this upward trend in Chinese naval activity also stated that his government would analyze any new tactics observed during this period—a statement that reflects heightened vigilance in the face of the rapidly evolving joint military capabilities of Beijing and Moscow.

This official statement confirms that Taiwan does not view these exercises as mere routine drills, but as a development significant enough to warrant heightened surveillance and transparent public communication regarding this perceived threat.

What Taiwan Specifically Fears

The main concern expressed by Taiwanese authorities relates to the potential sharing of military tactics and technologies between China and Russia, particularly in the areas of naval warfare, anti-ship missiles, and joint-service coordination—capabilities that could directly impact the defense scenarios envisaged by Taipei in the event of a blockade or invasion.

This Taiwanese fear seems to me to be entirely justified. Every joint Sino-Russian exercise is an opportunity for mutual learning that could, one day, be applied directly against Taiwan’s defenses.

Converging Interests Despite Profound Differences

China and Russia remain powers with strategic interests that sometimes diverge, but their shared opposition to a Western-dominated international order is driving them toward increasing military cooperation that now goes beyond mere diplomatic symbolism to take the form of concrete joint exercises.

This alliance of convenience, born in part from Russia’s growing isolation since its invasion of Ukraine, offers Moscow a powerful military and economic partner, while Beijing finds in it an ally willing to jointly test military capabilities against a perceived common adversary: Western democracies and their regional partners.

What This Alliance Means for the Indo-Pacific Balance

This growing military cooperation between Beijing and Moscow complicates the strategic equation for democracies in the Indo-Pacific region, which must now anticipate not only China’s capabilities on their own, but also tactics potentially shared with a Russia hardened by more than four years of war in Ukraine.

I see this Sino-Russian convergence as confirmation of a thesis I have long defended: authoritarian regimes naturally unite against the democratic order, regardless of their historical rivalries.

Lessons Learned from the Ukrainian Battlefield

The war in Ukraine has provided Russia with considerable operational experience in modern warfare, drones, and precision-guided missiles—expertise that could potentially be transferred to China through these joint exercises, heightening concerns about the mutual strengthening of the two regimes’ military capabilities.

This dynamic illustrates a troubling geopolitical reality: Putin’s war against Ukraine is not confined to the European theater; it indirectly fuels the military buildup of other authoritarian regimes elsewhere in the world, particularly in the Yellow Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

Why the West Must View These Two Conflicts Together

The West can no longer afford to analyze the war in Ukraine and the tensions surrounding Taiwan separately: these two theaters are now linked by growing military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing, which requires a coordinated strategic response rather than compartmentalized regional policies.

I say this time and again: Ukraine and Taiwan are part of the same struggle against the same authoritarian axis. To treat these crises separately is to ignore the strategic reality that now unites them.

A Still Cautious Response to These Exercises

In response to confirmation of these joint naval exercises near Qingdao, Washington’s official reaction has remained relatively measured, limited to general expressions of concern rather than concrete additional deterrence measures in the Indo-Pacific region.

This American diplomatic restraint, if it persists over time, could send an ambiguous signal to Beijing and Moscow regarding the United States’ true determination to counter this growing military cooperation between the two authoritarian regimes.

The Cost of This Restraint to U.S. Credibility

An insufficiently firm response to this Sino-Russian military convergence risks eroding the credibility of U.S. deterrence in the region, at a time when the United States’ Indo-Pacific allies—notably Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea—are closely watching Washington’s every move.

This U.S. restraint worries me. Credible deterrence is not built on statements of general concern, but on concrete actions that demonstrate a genuine willingness to counter this authoritarian convergence.

Increased Pressure on Local Deterrence Capabilities

This Sino-Russian military convergence is intensifying pressure on Taiwan’s defense industry, which is already grappling with internal debates over funding for its defense capabilities—particularly in the strategic drone sector, an area where Sino-Russian technological cooperation could accelerate the development of appropriate countermeasures.

This additional pressure underscores the urgency for Taiwanese policymakers to quickly resolve the budgetary impasses that are currently hindering the strengthening of their own defense capabilities in the face of a threat that is evolving faster than anticipated.

The Paradox of a Growing Threat and Stalled Funding

This paradox—between a clearly growing Chinese and Russian military threat and Taiwanese defense funding that remains mired in internal legislative debates—illustrates a structural vulnerability that Beijing and Moscow may seek to exploit in their future strategic calculations.

This paradox deeply exasperates me. How can Taiwan afford to dither over its defense budget while its adversaries are stepping up joint shows of force right on its doorstep?

Increasing Integration of Naval Forces

These joint exercises near Qingdao illustrate a significant shift in Chinese military doctrine, which now prioritizes deeper integration with foreign partners to test its own capabilities in the face of complex naval conflict scenarios, particularly against the backdrop of ongoing tensions with Taiwan.

This doctrinal shift is part of a broader Chinese military modernization effort, which Western defense analysts have been documenting for several years; they note an acceleration in the pace of exercises and an increasing sophistication in the scenarios simulated by the People’s Liberation Army.

What This Sophistication Means for Taiwan

For Taiwan, this growing sophistication of China’s military capabilities—potentially bolstered by Russian experience gained in Ukraine—means that the defense scenarios envisaged by Taipei must be constantly reassessed and adapted to a rapidly evolving threat rather than a static one.

This growing Chinese military sophistication convinces me that Taiwan no longer has the luxury of time to modernize its own defenses. Every month of budgetary delay is a month given to Beijing to close the gap.

A Message Sent Far Beyond the Yellow Sea

Beyond their direct military significance, these exercises send a strong symbolic message to the entire international community: China and Russia intend to demonstrate that their military cooperation is not limited to diplomatic statements, but translates into concrete and visible actions, including in strategically sensitive areas such as the Yellow Sea.

This symbolic message is directed as much at Western allies as it is at the domestic populations of both countries, reinforcing a narrative of shared power in the face of what Beijing and Moscow portray as a strategic encirclement orchestrated by Western democracies.

Why This Symbolism Should Not Be Underestimated

This symbolism, although distinct from the actual operational substance of the exercises, should not be underestimated by Western analysts, as it helps shape public and political perceptions of the relative power between the democratic and authoritarian blocs in the Indo-Pacific region.

I refuse to downplay this symbolic dimension. Military propaganda works, and every image of joint Sino-Russian exercises reinforces a narrative of power that influences regional strategic calculations.

A Reflection of the Russian Threat on the European Continent

European governments, focused on the immediate threat posed by Russia on their eastern borders, should also pay attention to this growing military convergence in Asia, which demonstrates that Moscow is not concentrating its military and diplomatic resources exclusively on the Ukrainian theater.

Russia’s ability to maintain active military cooperation with China while continuing its war effort in Ukraine suggests institutional resilience on the part of Putin’s regime, which should temper any Western optimism about an imminent exhaustion of Russian military capabilities.

A Lesson in Vigilance for All Democracies

Russia’s dual strategic presence—in Ukraine and in the Yellow Sea—serves as a lesson in vigilance for all democracies facing authoritarian regimes: the geographical fragmentation of their attention must never lead them to underestimate the overall strategic coordination of their common adversaries.

This dual Russian presence alarms me more than I can say. A regime that still finds the resources for naval exercises in Asia while waging a protracted war in Europe is not a weakened regime.

A Documented Convergence, Not Merely a Hypothesis

This commentary establishes that the growing military cooperation between China and Russia, as illustrated by these joint naval exercises near Qingdao, is a documented fact officially confirmed by both governments—not merely a speculative hypothesis put forward by alarmist analysts.

This reality requires Western democracies and their regional allies to seriously reassess their own strategic coordination in the face of an authoritarian axis that demonstrates, exercise after exercise, a clear determination to strengthen its mutual military cooperation.

What to Watch for in the Coming Weeks

The true measure of the impact of these exercises will become clear in the coming weeks, as seen in the evolution of the tactics observed by Taiwan, the concrete response from Washington and its allies, and the future frequency of this type of military cooperation between Beijing and Moscow.

I will continue to document every new Sino-Russian joint exercise, because the frequency of these events—more than their individual content—reveals the true trajectory of this authoritarian alliance.

An island that must contend with two coordinated adversaries

For Taiwan, this Sino-Russian military convergence means it must now consider defense scenarios that take into account not only China’s capabilities on their own, but also potential Russian tactical or technological support in the event of a direct confrontation with Beijing.

This reality significantly complicates Taiwan’s defense planning, which is already weakened by internal budgetary deadlocks over funding for drones and other deterrent capabilities deemed essential in the face of an ever-evolving threat.

The Urgency of a Coordinated Western Response

This situation underscores the urgency for Western democracies to offer Taiwan coordinated and predictable support—rather than scattered, ad hoc commitments—in order to effectively counter this growing military cooperation between two authoritarian regimes determined to reshape the international order to their advantage.

I conclude with one certainty: Taiwan cannot face this Sino-Russian convergence alone. The West must choose between genuine coordination now or bitter regrets later.

Economic unease amid military tensions

Beyond defense circles, these joint naval exercises between China and Russia are also fueling growing unease in Asian financial markets, which are particularly sensitive to any escalation that could disrupt critical supply chains passing through the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

This economic unease is manifesting itself in the form of heightened attention from global technology companies toward their dependence on Taiwanese semiconductors—a strategic sector that could face major disruptions in the event of a regional military escalation involving both Beijing and Moscow.

A Western Defense Industry on Alert

This Sino-Russian military convergence also poses a challenge to the Western defense industry, several of whose leaders have publicly called for accelerated deliveries of deterrent equipment to Taiwan and the United States’ Indo-Pacific allies in response to this joint show of force.

This pressure from the industry, combined with strategic pressure stemming from policy documents, illustrates the extent to which this military convergence now extends beyond the security sphere alone to directly affect the economic interests of Western democracies and their Asian partners.

I note with interest that even the financial markets—which are rarely sensitive to abstract geopolitical issues—are beginning to factor this Sino-Russian convergence into their risk assessments. This is perhaps the most telling sign of the gravity of the situation.

An Alliance Taking Shape Before Our Eyes

This commentary concludes that the joint naval exercises between China and Russia near Qingdao are not an isolated event, but rather another step in the development of structural military cooperation between two authoritarian regimes that share a common hostility toward the Western-dominated international order.

This reality calls for heightened vigilance on the part of Taiwan, but also on the part of all Western democracies, which can no longer afford to treat the threats posed by Beijing and Moscow in their respective theaters of operation as separate issues.

What History Will Remember About This Week

History may remember this week as a turning point in the consolidation of the Sino-Russian military axis, or as just one episode among many in a long series of shows of force that, taken together, are gradually reshaping the global strategic balance.

I conclude this commentary convinced that history will judge harshly the democracies that chose to look the other way while this authoritarian alliance consolidated, exercise after exercise, right before their eyes.

What This Week Really Teaches Us

The joint naval exercises between China and Russia off the coast of Qingdao confirm a trend that has been documented for several years: the military rapprochement between Beijing and Moscow is no longer an analyst’s hypothesis, but an operational reality that is manifesting itself concretely in regular and increasingly sophisticated joint exercises.

This reality demands a response from Western democracies commensurate with this coordination: a unified strategy that treats Ukraine and Taiwan as two fronts in the same battle against authoritarianism, rather than as separate regional issues managed by siloed administrations.

The ultimate test of this Western coordination

The true test of this new awareness will be measured in the coming months by the concrete ability of Western democracies to synchronize their support for Ukraine and Taiwan in the face of an authoritarian axis that, for its part, shows no signs of strategic fragmentation.

I conclude this commentary with a simple conviction: history will not forgive Western democracies for having treated separately what, since Qingdao, has now emerged as a single, unified struggle against authoritarianism.

Signed, Maxime Marquette, columnist