COLUMN: At 89.4, U.S. consumer confidence is already starting to make its voice heard

89.4, a low figure that defies the hype

Lowest level in seven months

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 89.4 in August, down from a revised 90.2 in July. This is its lowest level since January. The decline is small. The level is low. That’s why the figure deserves better than a panicked headline and more than a shrug.

The index has been hovering in a lackluster range for several months, far from the levels above 100 seen in late 2024 and early 2025. It does not directly measure spending, wages, or production. It measures what households say about the present and what they expect to come.

A shift in sentiment is not a recession

A confidence survey can precede an economic downturn, accompany it, or be disconnected from it. It does not automatically signal a decline in gross domestic product. Nor does it prove that consumers have already tightened their purse strings. This distinction is necessary because politicians love to turn concerns into instant verdicts.

The figure of 89.4 is not proof of a recession; it is the receipt for an economic promise that too many Americans no longer feel in their daily lives. The country is still spending. It is still working. But it is watching prices, employment, and the coming months with a confidence that is quietly fading.

This is not panic. It is faith that is waning.

The present holds more promise than the future

121.2 for the current situation

The component assessing the current situation rose by 6.8 points to 121.2. This increase dispels any caricature of a consumer already convinced that the economy is in ruins. Respondents viewed current conditions—particularly labor conditions—more favorably than they did in July.

The share of respondents reporting that jobs are “plentiful” rose to 27.0%, up from 24.4%. The share saying they are “hard to come by” fell to 19.5%, down from 21.7%. The current labor market gap has thus improved. This is the fact that troubles any columnist too quick to pass judgment.

68.2 for expectations

The expectations component, however, fell by 5.8 points to 68.2. This is where the index splits. Households describe the present as still manageable, but when they look ahead, they see fewer jobs, slower income growth, and less reassuring business conditions.

America isn’t down for the count; it’s moving forward with the sense that the path ahead is narrowing. This divergence is more significant than the overall 0.8-point decline. It suggests that the unease isn’t just a complaint about the past. It’s a reservation about the future.

The present still pays off. The future is already demanding proof.

Jobs seem available, but their promise is fading

Fewer respondents see more jobs

In August, 14.6% of consumers expected more jobs in the coming months, down from 16.4% in July. On the other hand, 26.1% anticipated fewer jobs, up from 25.3%. These aren’t observed job gains or losses. They are expectations, and they have grown bleaker.

The contrast with the improved assessment of the current market is stark. People may see job openings today and doubt they’ll still be there tomorrow. They may keep their jobs but stop believing they’d be able to find another one quickly. Confidence often crumbles in that interim.

Security also depends on the exit

In July, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimated an average probability of 46.2% of finding a new job if the current one were lost. This estimate had risen by 1.3 percentage points, but it remains a household projection, not a market guarantee. The probability of higher unemployment in a year’s time stood at 42.8%.

Workers don’t just evaluate the job they have; they assess the gap between their current pay and the next one—if that pay were to disappear. When that gap seems to widen, caution creeps into every decision. It doesn’t wait for a layoff to begin.

The fear of unemployment sets in before unemployment itself.

Prices Rise Even When They Slow Down

3.4% year-over-year

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% year-over-year. Inflation is therefore not accelerating at the same rate everywhere. However, it remains high enough to continue pushing the general price level further away from households’ memories of their past bills.

Food costs were 3.0% higher than a year ago. Housing costs were 3.2% higher. Energy prices rose 14.7%, driven in particular by a year-over-year surge in gasoline prices. These averages don’t affect every family in the same way. However, they represent expenses that are impossible to ignore.

The level remains after the rate

A slowdown in the pace of inflation does not bring prices back to where they started. It simply means they are rising more slowly. This distinction, which may seem obvious to an economist, is crucial for a household comparing its current paycheck to the amount needed to fill the grocery basket, pay for housing, and cover transportation costs.

Washington talks about the rate; households pay the level—that old peak that remains even when the slope becomes less steep. That is why a statistical improvement can coexist with lasting anger. The number is slowing down. The bill isn’t going back down.

Inflation can lose steam without giving back what it has taken.

5.8%, tomorrow’s expected rate

Expectations on the Rise

In the Conference Board survey, expected inflation over the next 12 months reached 5.8% in August, up from 5.6% in July. This estimate is not the official future inflation rate. It reveals what respondents fear, influenced by headlines, visible prices, and recent experiences.

The New York Fed’s measure yields a different figure: in July, the median one-year expectation was 3.6%. The methods, samples, and wording are not the same. Comparing them therefore requires avoiding the assumption of a common standard of precision. The shared signal is simpler: expectations remain above the Fed’s 2% target.

Belief becomes behavior

When a household expects to pay more, it may bring forward a purchase, build up a reserve, or cut back elsewhere. When it simultaneously fears a deterioration in the job market, it may do the opposite and hold onto its money. The two impulses clash within the same decision.

Concerns about prices drive people to buy before prices rise; concerns about employment drive them to wait. Caught between the two, confidence is torn. No indicator can predict exactly which force will prevail. But a consumer-driven economy becomes more fragile when every expenditure feels like a defensive trade-off.

The wallet receives two conflicting orders. It closes out of exhaustion.

Income is growing more slowly than relief

Up 0.2% in June

Personal income rose 0.2% in June, as did disposable income. This growth is real. Yet it is not enough to create a sense of abundance when prices, interest rates, and fixed costs quickly absorb the gain. An economy can distribute more dollars without providing more breathing room.

In the August survey, 17.6% of respondents expected their income to rise, down from 19.5% in July. Those anticipating a decline rose from 12.6% to 13.8%. Again, these are future perceptions, not paychecks that have already been cut.

Expected income drives risk

A household that believes its income will grow can finance a car, a home renovation, or a trip with less fear. If it has doubts, the same purchase becomes a long-term obligation backed by a short-term promise. Economic confidence lies precisely in this gap between current capacity and expected income.

It’s not just the amount of the next paycheck that matters; it’s the conviction that the paycheck after that won’t be any smaller. When that conviction wanes, households don’t become irrational. They become acutely aware of their own vulnerability, sometimes before official statistics reveal it.

Income sustains the month. The expectation of income sustains courage.

Real consumption remains resilient

Up 0.4% in volume

In June, consumer spending rose 0.3% in current dollars and 0.4% after adjusting for inflation. This figure contradicts the notion that consumers are already paralyzed. Americans continued to spend, and real growth even outpaced nominal growth in this monthly report.

We must keep this counterexample in mind. Confidence and consumption do not always move in tandem. Households can express pessimism while still spending out of necessity—whether due to income, credit, or a decision made earlier.

The savings rate is shrinking

Personal savings totaled $646.1 billion in June, representing 2.7% of disposable income. This low rate does not prove that every family is depleting its reserves. It indicates that, on an aggregate level, the portion set aside provides less of a cushion than during periods of high savings.

U.S. consumers are still driving growth, but they’re doing so with a slim savings margin and confidence that’s already looking over its shoulder. This resilience may last. It may also break. The available data does not allow us to pinpoint the date of the tipping point.

Spending more doesn’t mean breathing easy.

July retail sales send another warning

Down 0.6% in one month

Retail and food service sales fell by 0.6% in July, according to the Census Bureau’s preliminary estimate. Year-over-year, they remained up 5.0%. Both figures can be true at the same time: a monthly loss of momentum, yet a level still higher than that of the previous year.

These sales figures are nominal, meaning they are not adjusted for price changes. They have a margin of error, and estimates may be revised. They are not sufficient to declare a general contraction in consumption, especially after the real growth recorded in June.

Sales Categories Do Not Move in Unison

Car dealership sales fell by 1.8% month-over-month and non-store retail sales by 2.2%, while food services and drinking establishments rose by 0.5%. Consumers are therefore not closing all doors at once. They are shifting, postponing, and choosing.

July’s decline is not proof of a recession; it is yet another crack in the narrative of an infinitely available budget. When confidence falls, the real question is not whether all spending will stop tomorrow. It is which expenses will be sacrificed first—and by whom.

Consumption is not coming to a halt. It is beginning to prioritize.

The Conference Board measures an internal conflict

A survey conducted August 3–16

The preliminary August data comes from an online survey conducted by Toluna for the Conference Board from August 3 to 16. This timeframe captures sentiment as of that date. Events that occurred after August 16 are not included, and responses may change in the final report.

A survey is not a census of every household. It produces an index based on a sample and a methodology. Its purpose is not to replace sales, employment, or price data. Rather, it is to show how consumers weigh these realities in their assessments.

The same respondent can embody two Americas

They may say that jobs are plentiful enough now but fear they will be scarcer soon. They may continue to shop while expecting higher inflation. They may consider their current situation acceptable and refuse to believe it will improve.

This contradiction is not a flaw in the survey; it is the heart of the American moment—solid in the rearview mirror, anxious in the windshield. Governments often miss this point because they respond to the present with a balance sheet, when citizens are asking for direction.

People can get by today and yet no longer trust in tomorrow.

Trump can’t just pick the numbers that suit him

Credit for the Present

President Trump and the Republicans can highlight the improvement in the current labor market assessment, the real growth in spending in June, and the year-over-year increase in sales in July. These facts exist. An honest opposition must acknowledge them, even when they complicate its narrative.

An administration does not control every price, every purchase intention, or every hiring decision. Inflation results from multiple forces—some pre-existing, some international, and some linked to current policies. To claim that a president alone controls the index would be as false as claiming that he bears no political responsibility for it.

The Burden of the Future

That same administration must answer for declining expectations, concerns about employment, and persistently high inflation. It governs at a time when households are wondering whether their incomes will keep pace. It cannot turn every positive statistic into a personal success and every negative one into someone else’s legacy.

Trump deserves credit for what is working under his presidency; he must also bear the brunt of the anger over what is costing us, stalling, and shutting down. The critical pro-Trump stance begins precisely there. Support is not a license to gloss over the reality.

Loyalty that rejects the facts does not help a president. It blinds him.

Republicans are heading into the midterms with a mixed track record

Less than seventy days

The midterm elections are approaching. At this stage, a confidence poll does not predict the national outcome. Districts differ, candidates matter, voter turnout makes the difference, and other events can shift the agenda. No economic indicator has yet shaped the ballots.

But the cost of living and job security offer the opposition a simple talking point. They tap into recurring experiences that are hard to erase with rhetoric. When expectations fall below current conditions, the ruling party risks being judged not only on what it has done, but on what voters believe it will do.

Perception Becomes a Responsibility

Economic policy isn’t a contest where the best chart wins. Voters weigh their bills, their jobs, the circumstances of their loved ones, and their trust in leaders. This judgment may be unfair on a specific issue yet still prove decisive at the ballot box.

Republicans don’t need a recession to suffer; it’s enough for enough voters to believe that next month will be tougher than the last. The risk isn’t a prophecy of defeat. It’s a climate where every visible increase becomes incriminating evidence.

Before it becomes a vote, discontent becomes a way of keeping score.

Republicans and Independents Weaker

The Conference Board reports that confidence weakened in August among Republicans and independents, while Democrats became somewhat more positive. This shift does not turn the index into an election poll. It shows that the unease is not confined to the camp opposed to the president.

For Trump, the most important signal isn’t Democratic criticism. That was predictable. It’s the erosion of support among those who should be most willing to defend his record—or among independents capable of deciding a close race.

A coalition doesn’t take an average

Each group may react to different information and interpret the same reality through a partisan lens. Averages aggregate these worlds without reconciling them. A campaign must understand which concerns are economic, which are partisan, and which reinforce one another.

When confidence wanes even within the ruling party’s camp, communication can no longer treat every doubt as an attack from the opposition. We must address the underlying issues: persistent prices, the future of jobs, and expected income. Otherwise, political loyalty becomes an insufficient safeguard.

The Fed Has Not Received Clear Guidance

Inflation remains too high

With the price index up 3.4% year-over-year and consumer expectations still high, the Federal Reserve cannot declare the battle over. Persistent expectations can influence wage negotiations, price-setting, and purchasing behavior, even if their transmission is never automatic.

Monetary policy acts with a lag. A rate cut could ease some financing costs and support economic activity. It could also seem premature if prices remain too strong. The 89.4 figure does not resolve this dilemma.

The labor market is sending a more subdued signal

Employment expectations are deteriorating, while July data showed weak net job creation. The Fed must therefore heed an economy where consumers fear both high prices and fewer job opportunities. Combating one fear can fuel the other.

The central bank isn’t choosing between two columns; it’s choosing between two wounds capable of exacerbating each other. Tightening too much could cool the job market. Easing too soon could prolong the cost-of-living crisis. Confidence is falling precisely because no one has a solution that comes without a price.

The benchmark rate moves in quarter-point increments. Fear, however, knows no such increments.

What 89.4 Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story

No official recession

The confidence index does not indicate quarterly growth. Nor does it establish a widespread, sustained, and severe contraction in economic activity. Real spending rose in June. July sales remain above their levels from a year ago. These mixed data preclude the word “recession” as a verdict.

The Conference Board’s current component has improved. The assessment of job availability has also improved. These factors do not dispel the sense of unease, but they prevent the narrative that the country has already ground to a halt.

No Definitive Drop in Spending

Intentions to spend on services declined in August, but the survey still pointed to a six-month upward trend. Intentions to purchase cars were strong, while those regarding homes were down slightly. Plans vary by category.

A serious analysis can point out that risk is rising; it cannot turn an intention into a canceled purchase, nor a concern into a full-blown recession. Power does not come from exaggeration. It comes from the fact that a documented risk is already enough to hold those in power accountable.

Identifying the limit does not quell the alarm. It merely prevents people from lying about it.

The consumer becomes the silent arbiter

Every postponement sets off a chain reaction

A postponed car purchase affects a dealership, a manufacturer, a lender, and a chain of suppliers. A canceled reservation affects a restaurant and its operating hours. A delayed renovation cancels an order before it leads to the loss of a job. Confidence is not spending, but it can pave the way for it.

There’s nothing mysterious about this mechanism. An economy based largely on consumption depends on millions of small, repeated, and scattered decisions. No single household drives the cycle. Together, they can accelerate or hold back demand.

Expectations can become self-fulfilling

Anxious households cut back on certain expenses. Businesses, seeing demand slow, delay hiring. Employment prospects then deteriorate further. This cycle is possible, though not yet proven to be an inevitable trajectory. That is precisely why policymakers must anticipate it before it becomes obvious.

Consumers don’t deliver an economic speech when they hold back; they simply cancel one transaction, then another, until the graphs finally hear their silence. Policy often comes later, taken aback by a decision that began in thousands of household budgets.

An economy sometimes slows down silently, one missed purchase at a time.

89.4 will enter the voting booth without a ballot

The number doesn’t vote

The index won’t choose any representatives in November. It knows nothing of a local candidate’s merits, nor the enthusiasm of their base, nor the event that will dominate the final week. It may rebound before the election. Prices may slow down. Employment may surprise. Consumer spending may still hold up.

But 89.4 already raises a political question: Do Americans believe that those in power understand the gap between economic indicators and their own lived experience? A track record may be technically defensible but humanly insufficient. The ballot box often remembers that gap.

The verdict points the way

Confidence fell by only 0.8 points in August. The expectations component, however, dropped by 5.8 points. That is where the report’s weight lies. The present has not collapsed; the projected future has receded. For the ruling party, this is not a condemnation. It is a countdown.

Trump and the Republicans can still defend what holds. They won’t be able to ask households to applaud for long a present they believe is threatened by tomorrow. With less than seventy days until the midterms, the economy hasn’t delivered its verdict. It has begun to frame the issue.

89.4 doesn’t vote. Those who feel it, yes.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist’s Transparency Box

Editorial Position

I am not a journalist, but a columnist and analyst. My expertise lies in observing and analyzing the geopolitical, economic, and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work consists of dissecting political strategies, understanding global economic trends, contextualizing the decisions of international actors, and offering analytical perspectives on the transformations that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which is limited to factual reporting. I strive for analytical clarity, rigorous interpretation, and a deep understanding of the complex issues that affect us all. My role is to make sense of the facts, place them within their historical and strategic context, and offer a critical analysis of events.

Methodology and Sources

This text respects the fundamental distinction between verified facts and interpretive analyses. The methodological rule is consistent: factual information is published only if it is supported by a verifiable source, and the sources actually used in this article are listed under “Sources,” never here.

Categories of primary sources used by the publication, where applicable: official press releases from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organizations, and dispatches from recognized international news agencies.

Types of secondary sources: specialized publications, internationally recognized news media, analyses from established research institutions, and reports from sector-specific organizations.

When an article cites statistical, economic, or geopolitical data, it comes from data-producing institutions (intergovernmental organizations, central banks, national statistical institutes), and the specific institution is listed under “Sources.”

Nature of the Analysis

The analyses, interpretations, and perspectives presented in the analytical sections of this article constitute a critical and contextual synthesis based on available information, observed trends, and expert commentary cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, contextualize them within the framework of contemporary geopolitical and economic dynamics, and give them coherent meaning within the broader narrative of the transformations shaping our era. These analyses reflect expertise developed through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a state of affairs documented as of its publication date, not a prediction: subsequent developments may alter these perspectives. No updates are promised in advance; when an article is corrected or supplemented, the change is dated within the text.

COLUMN: At 89.4, U.S. consumer confidence is already starting to make its voice heard